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2015 Year End Oil Price Outlook

In late January 2015, I postulated that oil prices were near or at their bottom. I wasn’t alone, however, as even Abdalla El-Badri, the OPEC chief, thought we were near bottom, too.

Here we are coming into the close of 2015. The question remains: As oil prices hover around the $40 mark, are they near the bottom?

This past year has surprised most experts as oil prices have stayed lower, and for longer, than most expected. Looking forward to the next few months is equally challenging. Inventories remain at record high levels, Iran and Iraq will be producing more, and the geopolitical environment is challenging. While the rig count is down substantially, US production is off only modestly.

During this past year, many capital projects have been cutback or eliminated. While those capital reductions might not have an immediate impact, over time their effect will be felt. In fact, Saudi Arabia is now voicing concerns, as evidenced in a recent Financial Times article “Saudi counters ‘lower for longer’ oil mantra” (subscription required), that the industry might not be investing a sufficient amount for future growth.

A year on, as Opec ministers prepare to meet next week with oil languishing near $45 a barrel, senior Saudi officials have a different message. In recent weeks, in public forums and private briefings, they have emphasised the dangers of future supply shortages as the oil industry has slashed investment in new projects.

Prices fell further than they ever anticipated, they say, remarks that for many in the oil market imply the Opec kingpin wants the year-long oil rout to come to a close.

Saudi officials say they are not about to reverse the policy that saw them open the taps and prioritise their long-term exports over short-term financial gain. But behind closed doors they say they want prices to stabilise between $60 and $80 a barrel.

That level, they believe, would foster oil demand but not encourage too much supply growth from alternative sources — a goldilocks scenario. Market watchers say that by focusing on the future outlook the kingdom can slowly coax the price higher without abandoning its strategy.

Back in late January, I thought oil prices might touch the high $30s, but doubted that prices would stay there for an extended period of two months or longer. While I am still of that view, I had expected that prices would have shown more strength by now.

I will be watching for any developments arising from the December 4 OPEC meeting and generally watching the oil environment over the coming weeks and months. Current prices are unstainable, so it is a question of when, not if, prices rebound higher.

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