Oil Update–March 2018

My expectation over the next few weeks for West Texas Intermediate oil prices is that they will be bound between $60 and $70. As compared to my last month’s forecast, I increased the upper end from $67.50 to $70. My reasons for the increase are changes in the Trump administration, namely the announcements of Mike Pompeo and John Bolton for the positions of secretary of state and national security advisor, and the approaching driving season. The changes in the administration suggest a more hawkish stance on foreign affairs. And the driving season increases gasoline demand. Otherwise, there has not much been much change since last month.