The markets have been more volatile recently, but I have not seen anything to make me either more bearish or bullish. When the market rises substantially, as it did today, I do not get more enthusiastic. And when it falls, I do not get more anxious. To be honest, I was hoping for another couple of down days to redeploy some capital. So now that the market has bounced back up, I am going to wait until either it goes back down or the outlook becomes clearer.
On Friday, June 23rd, the Durable Goods Orders will be released. On Monday, June 26th, New Home Sales will be released. On Tuesday, June 27th both Consumer Confidence and Existing Home Sales will be released. On June 28th and 29th, the EIA Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Reserves will be released. And on the 29th, the GDP data will be released.
The FOMC meeting is on June 28th and 29th, with the statement to be released at 2:15 pm on the 29th. While everyone expects the Fed to raise rates, the larger concern is the language surrounding the rate increase. What I am most curious about is the market reaction to what the Fed does on the 29th.
There is going to be a lot of noise during the next ten days or so. Thus, I am inclined to sit on the sidelines and watch. I hope that by the end of June or early July, I will have a stronger opinion. But right now, I am content to simply sit and watch.
As an aside, I find Adam Warner's discussion on options and volatility to be very worthwhile reading. If you do not already read Adam's Daily Options Report weblog, then I urge you to do so.
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