Because I am Canadian, I have no dog in the United States elections. That said, I still find the U.S. elections interesting and important. They are interesting because they are so much more passionate than our Canadian elections. And, of course, because of the prominence of the U.S. in international affairs, the U.S. elections have significant importance for all of us, Americans or not.
I just finished reading a Wall Street Journal article Clinton Braces for Second Loss; Union, Senators May Back Obama (subscription required). I am amazed at how fast Hillary Clinton went being the leader to a follower behind Barack Obama. After reading the article, I went to an online site Intrade.com where individuals can place wagers on different events and outcomes. If you go the left hand margin and choose 2008 US Election, then scroll on the right to 2008 Democratic Presidential Nominee, and then choose the detailed graphs for both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, you will note that the graphs are almost complete mirror images. A few days ago, Hillary Clinton had a bid of $75.00 and now it has fallen to $26.10. A few days ago, Barack had a bid about $21.00 and it is now $70.10. These bids can be thought of as odds. What a difference a few days make.
So for those of you that are political or news junkies, you might find watching the Intrade results informative. Here, people are putting their dollars where their beliefs are. These beliefs are not those political views that they espouse, but rather their views on who will win. Thus, I view the Intrade results as an on-going and live poll.
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