Recently in Book Review Category
I will have more to write about the markets in a few days. Instead, this post will be about one of hobbies, photography.
I just finished reading a thoroughly enjoyable book The Moment It Clicks: Photography secrets from one of the world's top shooters (Voices That Matter)
Rather than me discussing the book at length, I will enclose two videos. Fair warning, though, the second video lasts about 70 (yes, seventy) minutes in duration. I hope you enjoy the videos.
Video 1
Video 2 – Presentation Made to Google – 70 minutes in duration
For those looking for great photography online resources, I recommend two:
Before I begin my book review, you should know that I have a strong positive bias toward smart money managers that rely on fundamentals to formulate their investment theses. I enjoy reading the intellectual rigor of Doug Kass, general partner of Seabreeze Partners Management, Inc. and commentator for The Edge Column on RealMoney Silver (subscription required—part of TheStreet.com family), Jim Rogers (see his The Millennium Adventure website), and Bill Fleckenstein. While these managers will not always voice the same opinions, I know that when I read their opinions, they have been well thought out. Having stated my bias, I will now move on to the book review.
I heartily and enthusiastically recommend Bill Fleckenstein's book Greenspan's Bubbles: The Age of Ignorance at the Federal Reserve
Some might be inclined to believe that it is always easy to find fault in hindsight when everything is laid bare. However, as Bill and others demonstrated by their articles throughout the period, astute observers could and did recognize the problems in real time.
Once again Greenspan was able to rationalize the maniacal behavior that took place daily. Productivity explained it all. Companies felt good, analysts felt good—all was well because productivity was powering a new era. His predecessor at the Fed, Paul Volker, the man who had successfully broken the back of inflation in the early 1980s, didn't quite see it that way. He had too much respect for his former office and was too much of a gentleman to be direct, yet on May 14, 1979, he made the following point in a commencement address to the American University, School of Public Affairs/Kogod School of Business:
"The fate of the world economy is now totally dependent on the growth of the U.S. economy, which is dependent on the stock market, whose growth is dependent on about 50 stocks, half of which have never reported any earnings."
Obviously the prior quote relates back to the dot com era. Just after the dot com era passed, Bill Fleckenstein and others chronicled in real time the problems with the housing market, all of which leads us to today. The housing and mortgage situation is dire with the final outcome yet to be determined.
Throughout both periods, Greenspan's overwhelming belief in technological and productivity gains led him astray. He often confused cause and effect. It was not the technological and productivity gains in the technology as well as housing and mortgages industries that led to super rich valuations. Rather, it was the low cost of money that encouraged averaged citizens to reach beyond their means, both intellectually and financially, that created the super rich valuations. Because of a proliferation of media sources, both cable networks and internet sites, citizens became overly confident of their abilities to judge the worthiness of securities. With everyone else enjoying the party and no one even threatening to remove the punch bowl, people were enjoying themselves then and were content to worry about the hangover tomorrow.
During Greenspan's tenure, the creative destruction component of capitalism was routinely suppressed. The main consequence of this suppression was a loss of fear. Thus, the normal risk reduction response to periodic financial pain never occurred, as Greenspan wouldn't even allow small crises to run their course. Instead, as people lost respect for the idea that they might lose money, risk taking continually escalated until the situation reached a point where it is now: the United States, individually and collectively, is swimming in an ocean of debt that has been rapidly ratcheting higher. At the same time, the country is experiencing a declining real estate market that supports much of that debt, a sinking economy that has been dependent on an unsustainable real estate bubble, and a weak currency. Plus, there are over $500 trillion worth of derivatives that Warren Buffett has described as
"financial instruments of mass destruction." You couldn't have created a more precarious environment if had tried.
Many people today are having to contend with their financial hangover. Tomorrow has finally arrived. Bill Fleckenstein's book provides an excellent chronicle of the events that led to our current difficulties. We are perhaps right in the midst of the housing troubles. After reading Greenspan's Bubbles: The Age of Ignorance at the Federal Reserve, you will have a better appreciation as to why and how we got here.
Although I have been busy recently and not trading much, I recently finished A Bull in China: Investing Profitably in the World's Greatest Market
- Investment Biker: Around the World with Jim Rogers
;
- Adventure Capitalist: The Ultimate Road Trip
; and
- Hot Commodities: How Anyone Can Invest Profitably in the World's Best Market
.
Jim Rogers' prior books serve as a good background to his latest book. His early travel, adventure and investment books discuss different themes as he traveled around the world, first by motorbike with his then girlfriend Tabitha and second by his customized Mercedes car with his then girlfriend now wife Paige. Regarding his second trip, I strongly urge you to visit Jim Rogers — The Millennium Adventure website to see Jim's and Paige's phenomenal trip. His third book discussed commodities, in which China plays an important role as a user of commodities.
A Bull In China has the following sections and chapters:
- Introduction: Catching the China Ride;
- Investing: From Mao Caps to Small Market-Caps;
- Risk: The Perils of Success;
- Companies: Let a Thousand Brands Bloom;
- Energy: Not So Black;
- Transport: Paving the Way;
- Tourism: Up, Up, and Away;
- Agriculture: Have You Invested Yet?
- Health, Education, Housing: Serve the Masses;
- Emerging China: The People's Republic of Tomorrow; and
- Appendix.
Introduction: Catching the China Ride quickly sets the tone of the book by recapping some key points from his prior books. Again, reading his prior books is helpful, though not required, to appreciate better his current book. Jim lets you that he is big believer in China's future potential—so much so that he brought a Chinese nanny to teach his daughter Happy, born in 2003, Mandarin. Jim also informs you that he is not going to provide hot stock tips, but rather to help provide you with a start on your research. The companies he discusses may or may not be successful. They are merely starting points for you to do further research.
Investing: From Mao Caps to Small Market-Caps discusses the growth and evolution of China's markets. Of particular importance, Jim Rogers discusses The Chinese Alphabet Soup—A-Shares, B-Shares, H-Shares, S-Shares, N-Shares and ADR's, L-Shares, J-Shares, OTCBB, STAQ and NET.
Risk: The Perils of Success; discusses some of China's challenges and potential solutions.
In Chinese, the word "crisis" is made up of a combination of two characters. The first signifies "risk." The second stands for "opportunity."
China could face many crises up ahead. As an investor, the ones I need to examine most closely are those where potential risks—the fears they provoke, the solutions they require—have the best chance of creating value.
Believe it or not, I don't like taking chances when it comes to investing. The thrill of living on the edge has never been part of my portfolio. The same holds true for buying stocks in China, even if its people are among the biggest gamblers on earth. If you do your homework, buy cheap, and remain patient, you should be able to walk over and pick up that pile of cash in the corner that nobody else notices.
In this chapter Jim highlights some military, infrastructure and environment concerns. He then goes on to describing several companies that might be well suited to addressing these challenges.
I should note that Jim provides several key facts about the scenario or situation before mentioning key companies where he provides a quick snapshot of each. This information serves as an excellent backdrop for your own research.
Companies: Let a Thousand Brands Bloom is short chapter where Jim teaches you that many companies in China are still at their infancy yet are already household names. He mentions Baidu, a popular search engine in China, and Lenovo, a popular computer manufacturer. Still more companies are unknowns waiting to be recognized. Which companies will emerge the Chinese equivalents of GE, Oracle, Johnson and Johnson, and Sony?
Energy: Not So Black focuses on companies that supply China's energy, whether it is hydro, coal, oil, or alternatives such as wind. Jim Rogers also discusses companies outside of China that might benefit from China's continued expansion. For example, Bucyrus International, Inc. (BUCY), a Wisconsin based manufacturer of heavy mining equipment, is well poised to benefit from China's needs.
Transport: Paving the Way discusses the transportation industry, from road paving and infrastructure to automotive companies.
Tourism: Up, Up, and Away is a chapter about tourism inside China as well tourism for Chinese outside China. Of course, with greater affluence, Chinese will be enjoying tourism within their own country and in faraway places. Several companies poised to benefit from this trend are identified and discussed.
Agriculture: Have You Invested Yet? discusses how companies will benefit from China's growing appetite for better food and drink. Juice, farm seed, tractor, fast food, wine and other companies relating to the agricultural sector are discussed.
Health, Education, Housing: Serve the Masses focuses—not surprisingly—on healthcare.
As of 2004, China spent only 4.7 percent of GDP on health care, compared with 8 percent or more in developed countries (and 16 percent in the United States). In early 2007, as part of making health care a major priority, Premier Wen Jiabao announced the creation of a trial "co-operative medical service" throughout "80 percent of China" by 2010. The state will double subsidies to US$1.53billion and offer small amounts to pay medical bills for all rural dwellers. This is a first step toward meeting huge increased demands of a population that isn't just currently underserved but that by 2020 will have 170 million people over sixty, in addition to the number with chronic illnesses. Old age pensions and other forms of social security will be bolstered by an added US$35.7 billion in 2007. At the same time, a finance vice minister announced that China will be actively encouraging more private investment in the health care industry, offering preferential tax policies to those who would help improve a nationwide system full of inefficiency and soaring costs. All this should mean benefits for emerging health care providers and those that invest in them.
Emerging China: The People's Republic of Tomorrow discusses other key themes that do not fit easily into the previous chapters. Some key themes that are discussed are high-tech, aerospace, internet, film, sport, plastic money, mobile phones, cable tv, publishing, retail and fashion, currency, and commodities.
Appendix discusses additional sources of information for you to do more research. Throughout all his books, Jim Rogers encourages you to play to your strengths. That is, if you have specialized knowledge in publishing, then follow this industry more closely in China because you are able to see more clearly the developing trends than is the average person.
To help you down the road further, I've gathered in one place the best websites for Chinese listings, brokers, and China-related funds. These Internet resources will offer you the most current and reliable data. When it comes to the specific sectors or companies that seem most sound and compelling, your personal understanding, analysis and experience will have to point the rest of the way. As I've said: you do your research, pick the companies you like, and buy them, or you sit at home and watch the movies.
After all, China won't wait.
As mentioned, I have read all of Jim Rogers' books and thoroughly enjoyed each of them. Because I am a commodities bull, I found this book helpful in better understanding China's enormous growth. Moreover, I agree with Rogers' in his assessment of China's growing importance. In summary, I highly encourage you to read A Bull in China: Investing Profitably in the World's Greatest Market
I just finished reading Skin: The Complete Guide to Digitally Lighting, Photographing, and Retouching Faces and Bodies
Chapter 1: Digital Imaging Basics is a brief introduction to digital imaging basics. It quickly covers chips and pixels as well as dynamic ranges. Furthermore, Varis covers JPEG artifacts, cameras, memory cards, computers and monitor calibration. He finishes the chapter with a discussion on Photoshop preferences.
Chapter 2: Color Management Workflow, and Calibration is as the title suggests. The first few pages provide a high level overview of workflow management. Then Varis discusses color and light calibration. I must admit, he does have a rather funky looking set up of test targets that include the GretagMacBeth 24 patch plus Styrofoam cutouts and black traps. Varis provides a lengthy and detailed discussion on his calibration method. He also mentions that he prefers 8 bit processing as opposed to 16 bit. Moreover, he comments on the popular expose to the right practice.
The idea is good theory but bad practice because the histogram cannot tell you where you are placing your tones with any precision, and it can't tell you whether the histogram is appropriate for the subject. (What picture goes with this histogram?) The camera's histogram is only a general indication of the distribution of values in the camera-generated JPEG. It is usually a composite of all three channels. The RAW data has a much wider distribution of tones that will vary in each channel, so you may not know if you are clipping important data in the Red Channel simply by looking at the histogram display on the camera.
Chapter 3: Lighting and Photographing People is an overview of lighting. Varis uses different configurations of lights and reflectors to demonstrate various effects. The photographs contained in the book are helpful to understanding the concepts discussed.
Chapter 4: The Color of Skin teaches the reader about proper skin tones. Varis introduces how to use curves effectively as well as how to adjust skin tones by using the CMYK values. He then finishes the chapter with a discussion on cultural and personal preferences. What one group of people might desire, others might oppose. So it is important to understand your audience.
Chapter 5: Tone and Contrast: Color and B+W is an extremely interesting chapter because it discusses how to create B+W conversions and how B+W conversions can create better color photos. The first few pages discuss the channel mixer and split channels to obtain stunning B+W conversions. Next, Varis teaches the reader how B+W image can be used in luminosity blending to darken, lighten, and recover detail. I enjoyed part of the chapter because it opened up new avenues for processing my photos. Last, he discusses hue, saturation and toning effects.
Chapter 6: Retouching is a thoroughly enjoyable chapter. Varis begins with a basic retouching where he uses the healing brushes to smooth away wrinkles. But then he kicks it up a notch by subtly using the dodge and burn tools to make the image just that much better. He then goes on to show how to use Hue/Saturation Repair to address red blotchy skin. I found the before and after pictures were amazing. Varis then walks his readers through an example of an attractive woman in her fifties. The before and after pictures are remarkable. He then shows a similar set of before and after pictures for a beautiful young model likely in her twenties. He wraps the chapter up by discussing some thinning techniques as well as some further skin processing.
Chapter 7: Special Effects provides some useful tricks to generate interesting images. The four main themes of this chapter are soft focus, film grain and mezzotint, cross-processing, and tattoos. A substantial portion of the chapter is devoted to soft focus, which includes depth of field effects. Because photographers often want to create a softer, less harsh image or part of an image, I found this discussion helpful. I am not one for film grain and mezzotint. Similarly, I am not wild about cross-processing where you get unexpected colors in unexpected places. The last section on tattoos was interesting, even though I am not a tattoo fan. I liked the last part of the tattoo section where he described how to use Photoshop to create a fake tattoo.
Chapter 8: Preparing for Print focuses the following key themes: sharpening, color management for print, soft proofing, desktop printing, and creative print finishing. I am going to comment on the first and last items. Varis' sharpening discussion is very helpful. Prior to reading this book, I simply used unsharp mask and was done. Now, when I want to get a sharper picture, I use multiple sharpening layers in luminosity blending modes as well as darkening and lighting blending modes. This technique has the advantage of offering better control of the halos. Creative print finishing provides some options for designing captivating borders or edges to the photographs. In his examples, Varis shows how the edges provide added pizzazz to the already great photo.
Chapter 9: Parting Shots is a short chapter that provides some further high level commentary on workflow. Varis then walks the reader through the companion CD. I suspect most readers have already opened the CD and have been using the files all along, so this information is superfluous at this point. And last, he reminds readers that digital photography is still in its infancy. Much of what we have just learned is likely to become outdated soon. I believe, however, that if we understand and have developed a sense of adventure to experiment, our newly gained knowledge will help us as newer technologies and techniques emerge.
Being an intermediate, at best, Photoshop user, I found Skin to be a valuable resource. I enjoyed learning by working through the examples. I also enjoyed seeing how just some subtle steps make a significant difference. I highly recommend this book.
