Recently in Culture Category
I will have more to write about the markets in a few days. Instead, this post will be about one of hobbies, photography.
I just finished reading a thoroughly enjoyable book The Moment It Clicks: Photography secrets from one of the world's top shooters (Voices That Matter)
Rather than me discussing the book at length, I will enclose two videos. Fair warning, though, the second video lasts about 70 (yes, seventy) minutes in duration. I hope you enjoy the videos.
Video 1
Video 2 – Presentation Made to Google – 70 minutes in duration
For those looking for great photography online resources, I recommend two:
Today, I do not have much new to report with regard to the markets. Of course, everyone is talking about The Bear Stearns Companies, Inc. (BSC). Obviously, the troubles running through some investment banks and mortgage related companies are severe. Are we near the bottom or a turning point? I have no idea, and I am not sure that anyone else does either. I watched Bill Fleckenstein on CNBC's Fast Money show. He made an excellent point that not only are we experiencing a meltdown in the mortgage markets, but we are also about to experience an employment correction because many of the jobs created over the past few years were housing related.
Speaking of Fast Money, it is one of my favorite television shows. Unfortunately, it is going downhill. Dylan Ratigan seems to feel the need to cut off his featured guests who are providing insightful and helpful information. Today's show with Bill Fleckenstein served as a good example where Ratigan cut Bill off before Bill could complete his thoughts. And Jeff Macke, a guy who I like and admire, seems intent on cranking up the volume, theatrics, and hysterics with every show. Soon, he will be throwing chairs across the stage and biting off the heads of puppets and other props. The camera and production crew must be on drugs because they keep switching away from the person that is talking and animated to one of the panelists who is caught not paying attention. Guy Adami raises his eyebrows to signal that yes, he is awake and paying attention, but the others often look like deer caught in the headlights. Why the camera and production folks just do not stay focused on the person speaking is beyond me. The production folks also keep bringing in television viewers using webcams. I got a news flash for them. Webcams on television do not work well. The last thing I want after a long day is to hear somebody with a muffled and chaotic voice with a blurry and erratic picture. And Dylan Ratigan seems intent on providing cool sound bites. My question is, why Dylan? You already have a cool show—do not screw it up by trying to be ultra cool and hip. Just provide some great insights to the markets by using your access to some of Wall Street's best talents and your show will continue to be a raging success.
Although the markets are turbulent and difficult to manage, I find these times interesting and exciting. I hold a diversified portfolio with a strong bias toward commodities. I am comfortable with my positions. Occasionally, I will make some small trades, but for the most part, I am taking in all the great action.
On 11 September 2005, I shot the above picture of Chateau Lake Louise in Banff National Park, Alberta. If you click on picture above, you will be taken to my Flickr site. Incidentally, a new interesting photography site worth investigating is ShotCritic. It is a site where photographers can post photographs and receive feedback. And for those who enjoy using Photoshop, I highly recommend Chromasia Photoshop Tutorials.
Although I have been busy recently and not trading much, I recently finished A Bull in China: Investing Profitably in the World's Greatest Market
- Investment Biker: Around the World with Jim Rogers
;
- Adventure Capitalist: The Ultimate Road Trip
; and
- Hot Commodities: How Anyone Can Invest Profitably in the World's Best Market
.
Jim Rogers' prior books serve as a good background to his latest book. His early travel, adventure and investment books discuss different themes as he traveled around the world, first by motorbike with his then girlfriend Tabitha and second by his customized Mercedes car with his then girlfriend now wife Paige. Regarding his second trip, I strongly urge you to visit Jim Rogers — The Millennium Adventure website to see Jim's and Paige's phenomenal trip. His third book discussed commodities, in which China plays an important role as a user of commodities.
A Bull In China has the following sections and chapters:
- Introduction: Catching the China Ride;
- Investing: From Mao Caps to Small Market-Caps;
- Risk: The Perils of Success;
- Companies: Let a Thousand Brands Bloom;
- Energy: Not So Black;
- Transport: Paving the Way;
- Tourism: Up, Up, and Away;
- Agriculture: Have You Invested Yet?
- Health, Education, Housing: Serve the Masses;
- Emerging China: The People's Republic of Tomorrow; and
- Appendix.
Introduction: Catching the China Ride quickly sets the tone of the book by recapping some key points from his prior books. Again, reading his prior books is helpful, though not required, to appreciate better his current book. Jim lets you that he is big believer in China's future potential—so much so that he brought a Chinese nanny to teach his daughter Happy, born in 2003, Mandarin. Jim also informs you that he is not going to provide hot stock tips, but rather to help provide you with a start on your research. The companies he discusses may or may not be successful. They are merely starting points for you to do further research.
Investing: From Mao Caps to Small Market-Caps discusses the growth and evolution of China's markets. Of particular importance, Jim Rogers discusses The Chinese Alphabet Soup—A-Shares, B-Shares, H-Shares, S-Shares, N-Shares and ADR's, L-Shares, J-Shares, OTCBB, STAQ and NET.
Risk: The Perils of Success; discusses some of China's challenges and potential solutions.
In Chinese, the word "crisis" is made up of a combination of two characters. The first signifies "risk." The second stands for "opportunity."
China could face many crises up ahead. As an investor, the ones I need to examine most closely are those where potential risks—the fears they provoke, the solutions they require—have the best chance of creating value.
Believe it or not, I don't like taking chances when it comes to investing. The thrill of living on the edge has never been part of my portfolio. The same holds true for buying stocks in China, even if its people are among the biggest gamblers on earth. If you do your homework, buy cheap, and remain patient, you should be able to walk over and pick up that pile of cash in the corner that nobody else notices.
In this chapter Jim highlights some military, infrastructure and environment concerns. He then goes on to describing several companies that might be well suited to addressing these challenges.
I should note that Jim provides several key facts about the scenario or situation before mentioning key companies where he provides a quick snapshot of each. This information serves as an excellent backdrop for your own research.
Companies: Let a Thousand Brands Bloom is short chapter where Jim teaches you that many companies in China are still at their infancy yet are already household names. He mentions Baidu, a popular search engine in China, and Lenovo, a popular computer manufacturer. Still more companies are unknowns waiting to be recognized. Which companies will emerge the Chinese equivalents of GE, Oracle, Johnson and Johnson, and Sony?
Energy: Not So Black focuses on companies that supply China's energy, whether it is hydro, coal, oil, or alternatives such as wind. Jim Rogers also discusses companies outside of China that might benefit from China's continued expansion. For example, Bucyrus International, Inc. (BUCY), a Wisconsin based manufacturer of heavy mining equipment, is well poised to benefit from China's needs.
Transport: Paving the Way discusses the transportation industry, from road paving and infrastructure to automotive companies.
Tourism: Up, Up, and Away is a chapter about tourism inside China as well tourism for Chinese outside China. Of course, with greater affluence, Chinese will be enjoying tourism within their own country and in faraway places. Several companies poised to benefit from this trend are identified and discussed.
Agriculture: Have You Invested Yet? discusses how companies will benefit from China's growing appetite for better food and drink. Juice, farm seed, tractor, fast food, wine and other companies relating to the agricultural sector are discussed.
Health, Education, Housing: Serve the Masses focuses—not surprisingly—on healthcare.
As of 2004, China spent only 4.7 percent of GDP on health care, compared with 8 percent or more in developed countries (and 16 percent in the United States). In early 2007, as part of making health care a major priority, Premier Wen Jiabao announced the creation of a trial "co-operative medical service" throughout "80 percent of China" by 2010. The state will double subsidies to US$1.53billion and offer small amounts to pay medical bills for all rural dwellers. This is a first step toward meeting huge increased demands of a population that isn't just currently underserved but that by 2020 will have 170 million people over sixty, in addition to the number with chronic illnesses. Old age pensions and other forms of social security will be bolstered by an added US$35.7 billion in 2007. At the same time, a finance vice minister announced that China will be actively encouraging more private investment in the health care industry, offering preferential tax policies to those who would help improve a nationwide system full of inefficiency and soaring costs. All this should mean benefits for emerging health care providers and those that invest in them.
Emerging China: The People's Republic of Tomorrow discusses other key themes that do not fit easily into the previous chapters. Some key themes that are discussed are high-tech, aerospace, internet, film, sport, plastic money, mobile phones, cable tv, publishing, retail and fashion, currency, and commodities.
Appendix discusses additional sources of information for you to do more research. Throughout all his books, Jim Rogers encourages you to play to your strengths. That is, if you have specialized knowledge in publishing, then follow this industry more closely in China because you are able to see more clearly the developing trends than is the average person.
To help you down the road further, I've gathered in one place the best websites for Chinese listings, brokers, and China-related funds. These Internet resources will offer you the most current and reliable data. When it comes to the specific sectors or companies that seem most sound and compelling, your personal understanding, analysis and experience will have to point the rest of the way. As I've said: you do your research, pick the companies you like, and buy them, or you sit at home and watch the movies.
After all, China won't wait.
As mentioned, I have read all of Jim Rogers' books and thoroughly enjoyed each of them. Because I am a commodities bull, I found this book helpful in better understanding China's enormous growth. Moreover, I agree with Rogers' in his assessment of China's growing importance. In summary, I highly encourage you to read A Bull in China: Investing Profitably in the World's Greatest Market
The stock markets are certainly uncertain. Even with the Fed statement of a 50 basis points cut in the federal funds rate to 3 percent, the markets still closed the day lower, albeit just slightly.
Given all pessimism, I want to start buying again, especially commodity related stocks. However, given that the market remains turbulent, I am not sure that now is the proper time to become fully invested.
So what exactly am I waiting for before I do begin buying more aggressively again? To be honest, I am not sure. I know if I saw a sharp correction, I would jump in with both feet. And, I suspect many traders and investors would do the same. I suppose if the markets begin to show more stability, that too might encourage me to start buying. The reality is, I am in a wait and see mode.
Switching topics, the above photographs show Chateau Lake Louise in Banff National Park (see Google Maps). The top photograph shows the result after post processing and the bottom photograph is straight out of the camera with no post processing. I bracketed my exposures to +1, 0, -1 ƒ stops of the camera exposure. I found the 0, and +1 ƒ stops photos too bright and went with the -1 ƒ stop setting. If you visit Lake Louise, you will notice that the lake has a turquoise blue color from the glacial silt in the lake. The original photograph does not show the color of the lake very well. Using some techniques that I learned from Chromasia Photoshop Tutorials, I changed the color of the lake and increased the contrast. I made some other subtle changes as well; however, those are the larger adjustments. I thought some of you might find interesting looking at both the before and after pictures.
The top photograph is linked to my Flickr site, where the photographs are hosted.
I have been extraordinarily busy this past week, so I did not watch the markets as closely as I normally do. I did, however, purchase more oil stocks and stocks in a couple other sectors. Although I did not load up the proverbial boat with oil stocks, I might further increase my exposure soon. Those who follow my blog know that I am an oil bull, believing that oil prices will continue to rise because of the inability to match supply with demand at current prices. However, there might be some further downward pressure on oil stocks as northern hemisphere enters the spring season and the demand for oil is temporarily lessened. Of course, the current market turbulence might further add to the downward pressure.
That said, I believe that the stocks of oil companies are unlikely to fall much further. Put differently, there is much more upside than downside, especially as you lengthen your time horizon beyond one year. As time progresses, the world demand for crude oil will continue to increase. As the volume of oil consumed increases, the amount of crude that must be found just to replenish the natural decline of existing oil fields also increases. And then, more oil must be found to satisfy the increased global demand. Thus, those companies that have large reserves should do well.
The photograph of Model Linda T is hosted at Flickr. In this photograph, Linda posed in front of a train in the Heritage Park train roundabout. (See Google map:View Larger Map.) If you click on the picture of Linda, you will be taken to my Flickr account where you see even more pictures of her.
Doug Kass, general partner of Seabreeze Partners Management, Inc. and commentator for The Edge Column on RealMoney Silver (subscription required—part of TheStreet.com family) covered his short position in Zale Corporation (ZLC). I followed suit.
In an earlier article, I provided my rationale as to why I was considering covering my short position in Zale early in the New Year. Now that the stock has fallen even more and because Doug Kass mentioned that he is getting out of the short position, I am ringing the register and closing my short position as well. I shorted Zale in March of 2007 and I covered today. You can see the Yahoo chart on Zale's stock price movement since March 2007.
Calgary model Judith Aldama is featured in the photograph above, which is hosted at Flickr. If you click on the picture of Judith, you will be taken to where you can view a larger version and see even more pictures of her.
Disclosure: No position in Zale.
I wish everyone a Happy, Healthy, and Prosperous New Year 2008. I hope everyone enjoyed their festivities last night and arrived home safe and sound.
As those who regularly read my blog know, I usually comment on business and finance. I expect 2008 to be rather interesting. While there are a lot of economic headwinds as we enter 2008, I expect that the housing crisis will dominate the investment landscape for at least the first half the year. For the latter half, I am not sure. From an investment perspective, the year 2008 promises to be more volatile and exciting than recent prior years.
Earlier this last year on Saturday, 15 September 2007, I photographed the picture above of Lake Louise in Banff National Park, which is located in Alberta near the Alberta and British Columbia provincial border. I believe the top of the mountain in the picture is on the continental divide, which is also the border between Alberta and British Columbia. In Banff National Park, the rivers on the British Columbia side flow west to the Pacific Ocean, and the rivers on the Alberta side flow east to the Atlantic Ocean. There might be some rivers from Banff that flow north to the Arctic Ocean, though I am not sure. The Athabasca River begins in Jasper National Park, which is to the North and shares a border with Banff National Park, and does flow to the Arctic Ocean.
This picture itself is a composite of two pictures. When I originally photographed this scene, I bracketed my exposures. I took one photograph one ƒ stop below exposure, one at proper exposure, and one photograph at one ƒ stop over exposure. I did not use the overexposed photograph. I used the sky from the underexposed photograph and used the remainder from the properly exposed photograph. Out of the camera, the photograph had a slight bluish cast, which I have tried to remove. In more technical speak, the original white balance had too much blue. The sky has been darkened, and the rest of the scene has been slightly manipulated as well, mostly contrast adjustments to bring out the detail better. Lake Louise itself has a magical color in that the fine silt from the glacier runoff produces this amazing bluish turquoise color.
In making these adjustments on the photograph, I used some of the techniques that I learned from Chromasia Photoshop Tutorials. I tremendously enjoy his photoblog and his tutorials, so I am happy to promote his site.
On a somewhat related note, I am still working my way through my Flickr challenges. I will have more to say in a few days. For now, I have restored some of my photographs on Flickr and my weblog. I still have much more work to do, however.
The above picture is hosted on Flickr. If you click on the picture, you will be taken to my Lake Louise picture on Flickr. Almost all of my Banff and Jasper National Park pictures are missing, because I have not had an opportunity to reload them yet.
I am currently experiencing difficulties with my Flickr account. I have a hunch that the outcome is not going to be good. In any event, I ask for your patience with my site while I work on solving my Flickr difficulties.
Update
I have lost all my pictures, comments, favorites, contacts, and friends on my Flickr account. You can read a more detailed explanation of what purportedly happened. I will comment more on this topic in a day or two. So please bear with me and my blog while I get reorganized.
To those who celebrate Christmas, I wish you a Very Merry Christmas and a Happy, Healthy, and Prosperous New Year! I further hope you are enjoy spend this time of year with your friends and family.
Switching topics slightly, I know that digital cameras are a popular item for Christmas. If you are looking excellent online resources to help you learn how to use your Canon or Nikon digital camera, particularly digital single lens reflex cameras—dslr— or Adobe Photoshop, I highly recommend two websites:
ProPhoto is an outstanding online community where photography enthusiasts and professionals discuss everything about photography. If you want to learn about your camera or about photography in general, you will find the ProPhoto members extremely helpful. Moreover, because this online forum is aimed at those who are serious about photography, the discussion is friendly and helpful. While the forum does have a large number of experienced photographers, there are also those like me who are still very much at the learning stage. What I really enjoy is the diversity of answers. Different photographers will provide different approaches to solving the same challenge. As a student, you can try several different approaches to see which best fits your style.
I have been following David J. Nightingale's Chromasia photoblog for quite some time. He recently decided to share his Photoshop knowledge with those of us who admire his photographs. So far, I have worked through Chromasia's tutorials on the following subjects:
- Tonal range and the Curves tool;
- Landscapes: creating dramatic skies;
- Black and white: part one;
- Toning colour images; and
- Portraits: part one.
David produces one tutorial per month. His next tutorial, soon to be released, will be: An introduction to Lab Color mode.
David's tutorials are extraordinarily well done. His explanations are thorough and complete, and he provides sample files. Moreover, he has an online forum where he answers questions. Even though Photoshop can seem complex and daunting, David's well organized tutorials allow you to work you way through the material while gaining a strong comprehension of the material.
This past year, I have become more interested in Photography. I have read several books on photography and Photoshop. And I have begun practicing taking pictures. The most important thing I have learned this past year is how much I do not yet know. There is so much to learn. If you are just starting out, like I was, you need to understand how your camera functions. You need to learn about light and color. You need to understand how to use Photoshop effectively. If you are working with people, you need to learn how work effectively with them to get great pictures. And the list goes on. Asking others is a great method to shorten your learning. I have found that just a quick few words of advice often pointed me in the correct direction. That as a backdrop, I heartily recommend these two online resources to help you learn more about photography.
Calgary model Judith Aldama is featured in the photograph above, which is hosted at Flickr. If you click on the picture of Judith, you will be taken to where you can view a larger version and see even more pictures of her.
I just received my new book War and Peace
Although I am looking forward reading Tolstoy's book, I am certain that it will take me several months to complete. The book looks reasonably complex with several different characters. Furthermore, the impression I have from reading the introduction is that this book does not follow the traditional novel format. So it will be an interesting journey.
On Amazon, there are 27 reviews with an overall average rating of 4.5. Given that almost all those who reviewed the book gave it the highest possible rating, I am certainly looking forward to reading it.
Calgary model Judith Aldama is featured in the photograph above, which is hosted at Flickr. If you click on the picture of Judith, you will be taken to where you can view a larger version and see even more pictures of her.
The New York Times has an interesting article Remaking The Journal (free registration required) that hints at possible changes to the The Wall Street Journal. As a subscriber to the Wall Street Journal, I was saddened when it got taken over News Corporation (NWS), because I fear it will suffer the same fate at CNN. When Ted Turner ran CNN, it was edgy and interesting. Along came AOL with its remaking of CNN and removing the edge. While it might have enjoyed a wider audience, it also became less informative and interesting to watch. I fear the same thing happening to the Wall Street Journal.
Mr. Murdoch has said that he wanted The Journal to step up its coverage of politics and national and international affairs, making it a more direct competitor to The New York Times. He has lobbied for more hard news and more succinct articles — a marked shift in tone for a newspaper whose signatures include long, often quirky news features that start on the front page.
There has even been talk of a front page with articles short enough to start and end there rather than continuing on inside pages, and of taking the words “Wall Street” out of the paper’s name to give it broader appeal, according to people who have been briefed on the matter. Both ideas were quickly dismissed, but the fact that they were raised even semiseriously shows how unconstrained by tradition the new owner is, these people said.
...
None of that should be surprising from Mr. Murdoch, who is known for being sure of what he wants to do with each of his many properties — often molding them to reflect his own views and wasting no time in doing it. His habit of detailed, personal control contrasts starkly with decades of hands-off ownership by the Bancroft family, which viewed almost any involvement as unethical meddling.
I, for one, often enjoy the front page, long quirky articles. I find those articles to be a refreshing break from the constant barrage of facts, figures, and strong opinions. Moving along to the free with advertising versus subscription based model, I favor the latter. I do not want to be constantly bombarded with advertisements that I need to move out of my way to read an article. I prefer a clean, uncluttered look. In my view, the online WSJ has a balanced approach now with advertising and content. One partial solution that I do like is Barry Ritholtz's solution of allowing the archives to flow freely. In essence, paid subscribers receive current content, while all are allowed to read older content supported by advertisements.
Given that I do not support some of the initiatives outlined in the New York Times article, does that mean I was content with the status quo? No, not at all. I recognize that the news media is a business. Thus, it must be profitable. The Dow Jones with its Wall Street Journal had been languishing for too long—in fact, that is the reason why the Bancroft family accepted Murdoch's offer. So change was inevitable, just a question of what and when. Myself, I would have preferred making the newspaper more informative and more insightful. I would have preferred to see more in depth articles. I am not sure how to translate those broad generic sweeping generalizations to something concrete. And perhaps that was the problem—those running the Wall Street Journal did not know how to make the appropriate changes either. So now we will have to sit and wait for Rupert Murdoch to make his changes.
Calgary model Judith Aldama is featured in the photograph above, which is hosted at Flickr. If you click on the picture of Judith, you will be taken to where you can view a larger version and see even more pictures of her.
This past Friday on CNBC's Fast Money, Karen Finerman chose Limited Brands, Inc. (LTD) as her final trade.
I recently purchased Limited Brands shares as well. A five year chart of LTD's stock price (Yahoo) shows that the stock has recently fallen from above $30 to the high teens.
Some key statistics from Yahoo Finance are as follows:
- Market Cap (intraday): 7.28B ;
- Enterprise Value: 8.99B;
- Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 10.27;
- Forward P/E (fye 03-Feb-09): 12.40;
- PEG Ratio (5 yr expected): 1.01;
- Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm): 6.731;
- Profit Margin: 7.07%;
- Operating Margin: 9.06%;
- Quarterly Revenue Growth (yoy): -9.10%;
- Beta: 0.88;
- Shares Short (as of 09-Nov-07): 19.79M;
- Short Ratio (as of 09-Nov-07): 3.7;
- Short % of Float (as of 09-Nov-07): 6.30%;
- Shares Short (prior month): 19.49M;
Looking at those statistics, I note that the sales growth has been soft—hence, the reason for share price fall—yet the valuation on traditional metrics appears reasonable. Moreover, according to a Barron's article Limited Brands a Black Friday Bargain (subscription required), even head honcho Leslie Wexner agrees that valuation has become intriguing.
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Leslie Wexner was the biggest purchaser, buying 280,000 shares for $5.1 million, or an average of $18.31 a share between Friday and Tuesday. The purchases were made indirectly through a trust. In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Wexner said he plans to buy an additional 720,000 shares over the next eight trading days. Wexner now owns 51,642,179 shares, or 14.3% of Limited stock outstanding. It was Wexner's first open-market purchase in more than 13 years, according to InsiderScore.com.
The stock hit a four year low of $16.50 on Nov. 21, the day after the company announced third quarter income dropped 48% and cut its outlook for the fourth quarter. Limited reported third quarter earnings of $12.1 million, or 3 cents per share, down from $23.5 million, or 6 cents per share, a year ago. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial had expected Limited to post earnings, excluding items, of 1 cent per share.
All that said, with the softness in the economy because of high energy prices and falling housing prices, I would not be surprised if I am early in my purchase. I consider my purchase of Limited Brands stock an investment, one that might take 12 to 18 months to play out. If Limited Brands falls further, I might increase my position.
Disclosure: I am long Limited Brands stock.
Edmonton model Nikki G is featured in the photograph, which is hosted at Flickr. If you click on the picture of Nikki, you will be taken to where you can view a larger version and see even more pictures of her.
