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Happy New Year 2010!

I wish everyone much happiness, health, and prosperity. Many people found last year, 2009, difficult and challenging. So I hope that 2010 is a much better year, one filled with more joy and optimism.

I further wish our NATO troops well and hope we can make substantial progress toward resolving conflicts. Too many people are suffering.

On Thursday, 10 September 2009, I photographed Calgary model Anya near Bow Falls in Banff National Park. If you click on my Flickr profile link, you will be taken to Flickr where you can see more of my pictures.

On Thursday, 10 September 2009, I worked with Calgary professional model Anya on a photo shoot in Banff National Park. We left Calgary at about 11 am and returned at about 11:30 pm. It was a long, but fun day.

Our first location was at Lake Minnewanka. When we arrived, it was windy and cool, at about 18C or low 60sF. We took several shots for about an hour or so before taking a lunch break.

For lunch, we went to into Banff townsite and ate a quick meal. Afterward, we enjoyed a brief tour of the Cascade Gardens beside the Administration Building. I wanted Anya to have some time to enjoy Banff.

Please note that the previous links to the Cascade Gardens and to the Administration Building were from a prior visit to Banff.

After our brief tour, we settled upon a location near the Administration Building but across the Bow River. These shots have Mount Rundle in the background. Because it was direct and strong, the sun forced Anya to keep her eyes closed except for brief periods when I took the photographs. A scrim or other device would have been helpful.

In the early evening, I took our last series of photographs near Bow Falls (link from prior visit to Bow Falls). In these shots, Anya looks as though she is lit by the setting sun. In fact, were it not for my Canon 580 EXII speedlights, she would have been a complete silhouette. At this particular location, there were mountains behind us that shielded us from the sunlight. The foreground, however, was still brightly lit. With the setting sun came cooler temperatures. We worked until about 7 pm.

After our last location at Bow Falls, we packed up our things and then went for supper. And we finally arrived back in Calgary at about 11:30 pm.

Working with Anya was a positive and rewarding experience. While serious about her professional modeling career, she was relaxed, enthusiastic, confident, energetic, and fun. She incorporated new ideas and suggestions easily as well as utilized many of her own creative ideas. Knowing that I am still experimenting as I continue to grow and develop my photography skills, she was patient, encouraging, and enthusiastic. In summary, Anya is a genuinely beautiful person, in all respects, who is a pleasure to work with.

I highly recommend Anya as a professional model, and she can be contacted through her modeling agency I Model Management.

On Thursday, 10 September 2009, I photographed Anya at Lake Minnewanka in Banff National Park. You can view a Flickr slideshow of my photographs of Anya from our Banff photo shoot. And, if you click on my Flickr profile link, you will be taken to Flickr where you can see more of my pictures.

Today I went long Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM). I indicated in a prior article, I had no position. Since that article, I have traded Exxon Mobil long and short.

Exxon has performed poorly this year. On 2 January 2009, the stock was at 81.64, and today it closed at $66.55, down about 18.5%. Oil prices are about $67.22, which is a reasonable and healthy oil price for most integrated oil companies to perform well.

Please note that you can click through the above chart to see a full-sized chart and that the data for 17 August 2009 is not shown.

Of course, I am unsure whether today's market selloff is the beginning of a larger correction or simply random noise. I am less sanguine on the overall economy than most pundits and economists. However, with the Fed running its nuclear powered printing presses at full power, I am fearful of inflation and bullish on commodities. Time will tell if I jumped the gun today by getting long Exxon Mobil too early.

In this past weekend's lead story Quality Counts for Barron's (subscription might be required), Exxon Mobil is highlighted:

The oil giant is the industry's clear leader, with the highest returns, strongest balance sheet, best management and most stable earnings among the "super majors." Exxon shares normally command a sizable premium to those of such peers as Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell (RDS-A) and BP (BP), but that gap has shrunk this year as Exxon shares have fallen 14%.

Exxon doesn't look cheap, trading for 18 times projected 2009 profits of about $4 a share. The stock, however, looks more reasonable based on 2010 earnings. The consensus calls for $6 in earnings next year, but one energy maven tells Barron's that profits could hit $7 merely if futures-market expectations for energy prices pan out. A forward P/E of 10 isn't bad for one of the world's best-run big companies.

I had been thinking about going long Exxon Mobil, and today's broad market selloff seemed to be a good opportunity to establish a long position. Should Exxon Mobil go down further, I might increase my long position.

Disclosure: I am net long with respect to Exxon Mobil Corporation. I am long shares, long puts, and short puts.

I took the photograph titled Great Throw on 12 July 2009 when I went for a bike ride across Prince's Island in downtown Calgary. The young woman has a great arm for throwing amazing spirals. She is good at catching footballs too. If you click on the above photograph, you will taken to my picture at my Flickr account, where you can see more of my pictures.

I will discuss the Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) second quarter conference call held on 12 August 2009 by providing the conference call's major themes in point form. In listening to the conference call, I did not place heavy emphasis on detailed financial information. For example, I am not too fussed about such items as noncash foreign exchange losses. Instead, I listened to how the company performed over the last quarter and expected to perform for the duration of the year. For example, I am focused on the company's silver cash cost. Because I believe the company is well managed by seasoned and competent professionals and because of my concern with potential inflation, Pan American Silver remains one of my core holdings.

In addition to transcripts of the company's conference call (see Seeking Alpha for the transcript and company's website transcript (PDF, 76 kb)), I used the company's press release (PDF, 47 kb). The press release is reasonably and well worth reading for a quick snapshot.

General Comments

• New quarterly production record of 5.8 million ounces of silver, a 28% increase year on year;
• Gold is the company's most significant byproduct at 18% of total revenue;
• Consolidated cash cost remains at $5.99 per ounce of silver;
• $23.5 million in operating income;
• Cash flow from operating activities was $32 million or $0.37 per share; and
• Quarterly adjusted net income was $13.5 million or $0.16 per share.

Manantial Espejo, Argentina

• Outperforming projections in large part because of additional gold output;
• Over 1 million ounces of silver at a cash cost of negative $0.93 per ounce, which is the result of about 18,500 ounces of gold production that more than covered all operating costs;
• Although the plant experienced some mechanical problems, it processed over 144,000 tons of ore, which is nearly 80% of plant design capacity; and
• Named Argentine 2009 Mining Company of the Year by the primary Argentina Mining Press and Argentina’s association.

Peru

• Produced slightly greater than 1.9 million ounces of silver, which was slightly ahead of target;
• Cash costs were much higher at $10 per ounce than the expected $8 per ounce;
• High costs were attributable to Doe Run smelter shut down;
• Anticipate producing slightly above 2 million ounces per quarter at our Peruvian operations for the second half of 2009 at approximately $9.50 per ounce; and
• Company awarded 2008 Peruvian Company of the Year from the Peruvian Association of Civil Companies.

Mexico

• Alamo Dorado mine produced 1.4 million ounces of silver at a cash cost of $4.23 per ounce;
• Smelt over 4,000 ounces of gold production that was forecasted at 3,300 ounces;
• Alamo Dorado overcame the five day suspension of operations in May because of the influenza outbreak;
• La Colorada mine produced 835,000 ounces of silver at a cash cost of $7.23 per ounce, 12% below expectation; and
• Expect continued solid performance from both mines.

Bolivia

• Startup of our San Vicente project in Bolivia yielded production of over 616,000 ounces of silver at a cash cost of just over $9 per ounce;
• Projected cash costs to decline to below $7 per ounce in Q3; and
• Mine is operating well and Company looks forward to better results in the near future.

General Comments

• 2009 silver production forecast is 21.5 million ounces, excluding Quiruvilca mine, which is moving toward care and maintenance;
• Cash costs are forecast at $6.00 per ounce of silver;
• 2009 gold production forecast is meet or exceed 85,000 ounces;
• Continue to ramp up San Vicente mine in Argentina; and
• Drill and develop the La Preciousa project, within an hour's drive from Durango, in Mexico.

Questions and Answers

I found only two noteworthy questions and answers.

• Company might engage in acquisitions to keep growth continuing; and
• For the La Preciousa project, a feasibility study might be ready within three years.

My Overall General Impressions

Wrapping up, I am long Pan American Silver because I believe that it is an extremely well managed company. As mentioned in my prior articles, I further believe that there is a strong chance that with central bankers printing money as fast as they can, there will be inflation once the true recovery takes hold. Higher inflation will cause higher commodity prices, including higher silver prices. Put differently, there will be a greater increase of dollars in circulation tomorrow than an increase of gold and silver in existence. And that should bode well for the shareholders of Pan American Silver.

Unless my fundamental outlook changes or Pan American Silver begins disappointing, it will remain a core holding. That said, it is a volatile stock, and those that are able to aggressively trade might wish to pick their opportunities. For example, on 13 August 2009, the day after the earnings release and conference call, Pan American Silver jumped $1.94 or about 10% to $20.74. Moreover, as I write this article, the stock is down $1.93 or about 9.5% to $18.37.

Disclosure: I am long Pan American Silver Corporation shares.

Approaching Downtown is the title of the photograph above, which is hosted at Flickr. I took this picture while biking and approaching downtown on 12 July 2009. The weather was great with temperature in the high 20s, low 30s C, (~85F). If you click on the picture, you will be taken to where you can view a larger version and see even more of my pictures.

Until recently, I ignored the whole social media thing. I just didn't want to bother having to keep another site active. Keeping my blog current was and is challenging enough. Much to my surprise, however, I found I enjoy Twitter.

So what's so special about Twitter? My answer is that it's fast and light. When I spot something interesting, I can quickly blast off a tweet, and I'm done. The vast majority of my tweets are simply articles that I have found interesting. Occasionally, I respond to someone else's question or concern. Oddly enough—at least to me—I actually read a substantial number of tweets from those that I follow. When I fire up TweetDeck, I scroll back in time and quickly review everyone's posts.

I follow an eclectic mix people. Most are related in some way to financial markets. Some are related to photography. A few are writers, and the rest are just a general assortment. Now that I am following more people than I can keep up with, I am reluctant to follow more. In fact, I probably should prune my list to reduce the noise level. For those that do want to follow me on Twitter, you can find add me @Stecyk. As mentioned, I am following enough people now, so I am unlikely to reciprocate.

Switching emphasis, I will provide a list of some of the recent articles that I highlighted in my tweets. Please note that Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, and Barron's are all paid subscription sites. You might need to be a subscriber to see their articles. The New York Times requires a free registration.

• Financial Times Microsoft in free software assault on Google;
• The New York Times Exxon to Invest Millions to Make Fuel From Algae;
• The New York Times Updates to Google Voice;
• King World News Bill Fleckenstein podcast;
• King World News Jim Rogers podcast;
• The Wall Street Journal One Small Step for Man, One Giant Mess in the Spacecraft (be sure to view the Interactives;
• The New York Times Driven To Distraction: Drivers and Legislators Dismiss Cellphone Risks; and
• Barron's Gold Still Has That Glitter.

On 18 July 2009, I enjoyed a 50 kms (30 mi) bike ride through the Weaselhead Park area and onto Fish Creek Park. I was looking west when I took the picture above from a bridge in the Weaselhead area. If you click on the picture, you will be taken to Flickr where you can see more pictures.