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Adam Warner over at Daily Options Report discusses the differences between the cash VIX and futures VIX.
The best analogy is to the weather. Think of the *cash* VIX as today's weather, and the VIX futures as a contract that guesses the temperature 30 days forward from the day they expire. The same way a warm day in August will not help you call December weather, a blip up or down in the VIX will not likely impact Dec. VIX futures all that much.
Okay, so what are the cash VIX and future VIX values? If you go to the CBOE website and mouse over the VIX symbol in the upper left hand corner, you can see how cash VIX has changed throughout the day. And if you click on the VIX symbol, you will get the latest cash VIX quote (with the quote delay).
A list of futures symbols can be found at the CFE site. Simply click on the month of interest, and you will get the latest quotation.
As Adam mentions in his article, the current cash VIX is less than the futures VIXs. Thus, if the cash VIX were to pop, the futures VIX is unlikely to pop as much, because the futures VIX is already anticipating that over time the cash VIX will rise.
For those interested in learning more about the VIX, here are two articles that might be of interest:
The white paper provides more specificity on how the VIX is calculated.
Adam has repeatedly made the point that you should not look at the absolute value of the VIX, but rather look at it in context. For example, today's VIX is about 21. Is that high or low? The answer to that question depends upon how VIX has been trading recently. If you look at Yahoo!'s VIX chart, you will note that today's VIX is toward the lower end of its range for the past year. Part of the reason why it is lower is that we are in a very slow part of the year, just before Labor Day. As Adam points out, the futures VIX for September is about 23, which looks much closer to the middle of the values in previously referenced Yahoo! chart.
The point of this article was to provide additional information on the VIX. I have given you links to where you can find quotes on the cash and futures VIXs. And you can follow Adam's blog where he often discusses VIX values.
My photograph of the Mount Edith Cavell is hosted at Flickr. If you click on the picture, you will be taken to my Flickr account where you can see more pictures.
Update: 27 August 2008
Adam has another very salient post VIX Vx. VIX on this topic.
I will have more to write about the markets in a few days. Instead, this post will be about one of hobbies, photography.
I just finished reading a thoroughly enjoyable book The Moment It Clicks: Photography secrets from one of the world's top shooters (Voices That Matter)
Rather than me discussing the book at length, I will enclose two videos. Fair warning, though, the second video lasts about 70 (yes, seventy) minutes in duration. I hope you enjoy the videos.
Video 1
Video 2 – Presentation Made to Google – 70 minutes in duration
For those looking for great photography online resources, I recommend two:
Yesterday I provided some thoughts with regard to Saudi Oil Conference. Robert F. Worth and Jad Mouawad wrote an excellent article At Oil Conference, Saudis Offer Slight Rise in Production (free registration is required) for The New York Times. I will just offer a teaser quote and encourage you to read the article in full.
Some analysts and oil traders had expected a much larger production increase from Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter.
But King Abdullah and the British prime minister, Gordon Brown, who walked into the high-ceilinged hall together as a military band played, soon offered totally different perspectives on the problem and how to approach it.
The king spoke of the “selfish interests” of speculators as a main reason oil prices have risen 40 percent this year, urging the gathered ministers to “rule out biased rumors and to reach the real causes for the increase in price.”
But Mr. Brown squarely pointed to fundamental economics and “oil demand rising faster than supply.” The U.S. Energy secretary, Samuel W. Bodman, put it more bluntly in a meeting with reporters, saying “there is no evidence we can find that speculators are driving futures prices.”
I am firmly in the camp of not blaming the speculators and instead blaming fundamentals. The demand is outstripping supply. Until either we reduce our consumption or we find more oil, prices will continue to remain high.
For those considering investing in oil companies, you might wish to consider investing in oil futures or an ETF such as USO). Often companies will have other challenges such as increased royalty and taxes as oil prices rise. Companies will often face increased costs and have difficulty replenishing their reserves. But with futures or an ETF that mimics oil prices, you can focus solely on oil prices and not have to worry about company specific issues.
My photograph of the View From Icefields Parkway is hosted at Flickr. If you click on the picture, you will be taken to my Flickr account where you can see more pictures.
The article Oil Summit to Take on Speculators (subscription required) in today's Wall Street Journal mentions that high powered officials are looking at the role of speculators.
Officials from around the world, including U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown and U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman, along with the chief executives of major oil companies, will meet Sunday to discuss oil prices, investment, and the role of speculators.
"From a global perspective, we definitely think it's time that financial markets and their regulators take a tough look at how transparent is this market and what needs to be done to improve it," a contributor to the working paper said Saturday, "and if there is a need for regulation, how that regulation should tackle the issues."
Seeking diversification and a hedge against inflation, institutional investors such as pension funds and endowments have invested some of their billions into financial contracts passively following indexes composed of a basket of commodity futures.
...
Governments must help stabilize the oil market, by taking action against speculators, Saudi Arabia's deputy oil minister Prince Abdel Aziz bin Salman was reported as saying, according to remarks re-published from Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper by the state-run Kuwaiti news agency Saturday.
The reality is that speculators are not to blame. Typically, when speculators push the price of a good beyond a reasonable level, producers begin producing to capture excess profits. However, in this instance, producers are not producing. Moreover, producers are not showing their cards as to what they can or cannot produce. That is, Saudi Arabia does not allow independent assessments of its oil fields. Thus, investors and speculators can only guess.
If OPEC had the ability to open the spigots, I believe it would. It would do so to unsettle the backers and supporters of large scale mega projects, such as Alberta oil sands mega projects. If prices were to plummet dramatically for a year or two, investors would think long and hard before spending billions to develop these massive and capital intensive energy projects.
The oil summit on 22 June 2008 could prove counterproductive. After the jawboning by Saudi Arabia earlier to increase its production by a measly two hundred thousand barrels per day, and after many Asian countries have reduced their fuel subsidies, fuel prices remain stubbornly high. Should the summit produce some important pronouncements with no noticeable effects, then it will be that much more difficult to convince speculators and others that oil remains in plentiful supply and that speculators are to blame for the current mess.
Blaming speculators is easy. Fixing the root cause of high oil prices is not.
There were two articles in the Wall Street Journal this past weekend that caught my attention. First was A Hostage to Fame: After Six Years of Captivity in Colombia, Ingrid Betancourt Is a Global Celebrity -- and Too Valuable for Rebels to Release (subscription required), a front page article concerning Ingrid Betancourt who is a courageous and strong woman being held captive by communist Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or the FARC. I have written about Ingrid before here and here.
Ms. Betancourt, a minor presidential candidate when she was abducted in 2002, is one of about 700 hostages held by the FARC, Latin America's oldest and largest insurgency. The FARC, estimated to number about 9,000 fighters, funds itself largely through drug trafficking and kidnapping. All but about 40 of its hostages are held for ransom. The rest include Ms. Betancourt, three U.S. defense contractors abducted in 2001, and Colombian policemen, soldiers and politicians whom the rebels consider prizes of war to be deployed to strategic advantage.
Ms. Betancourt, who holds dual Colombian and French citizenship, has become the face of Colombia's captives and their heart-breaking suffering. In Europe, she is a cause célèbre, so famous that she is simply known as "Ingrid." Her portrait hangs on the facade of the Paris city hall and in Milan's main piazza. France stages marches to demand her release, and Italy holds midnight vigils. Across the world, more than 1,000 cities and towns have declared her an honorary citizen.
But in becoming so famous, the 46-year-old Ms. Betancourt has also become more valuable to the FARC, which has suffered a string of major setbacks in the past few months. Only days after he complained about Ms. Betancourt in the email, Mr. Reyes, the rebels' second-in-command, was killed in an airstrike by the Colombian military on his camp in neighboring Ecuador. Weeks later, the group lost its legendary leader Manuel Marulanda, who apparently died of a heart attack.
The article goes on to discuss Venezuela's president Hugo Chavez's possible role in assisting FARC to destabilize Colombia.
The second article Venezuela's Chávez Urges End to Colombia Insurgency: In Sharp Reversal, Guerrillas Are Asked To Release Hostages (subscription required) shows Chavez changing course.
In a surprising turnaround, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez urged Colombian guerrillas to free hundreds of hostages, put down their weapons and end their almost 50-year campaign to overthrow Colombia's government and install a communist regime.
Speaking on his weekly television program, Mr. Chávez, who has been a public ally of the 9,000-strong Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, said the group's efforts to overthrow Colombia's democratically elected government were unjustified. "The guerrilla war is history," Mr. Chávez said.
The president has been lobbying friendly governments to grant de facto democratic diplomatic recognition to the FARC. "At this moment in Latin America, an armed guerrilla movement is out of place."
I am always drawn to people of principle who struggle against seemingly insurmountable challenges. And thus, I admire Ingrid and hope that she and her fellow captives are released soon. She has suffered far too much.
With regard to Hugo Chavez, while I appreciate any effort to help free the FARC hostages, I have strong concerns about his role in assisting FARC and helping to destabilize the region. Unfortunately, the high price of oil is helping to stabilize his regime and allow him to continue to wreak havoc. That is truly unfortunate.
I have long held a strong interest in South America and am drawn to people with strong principles and convictions. Thus, Ingrid Betancourt's story has captured my interest and attention.
My photograph of the downtown Calgary is hosted at Flickr. If you click on the picture, you will be taken to my Flickr account where you can see more pictures.
In my last post Still Believe In The Commodities Bull Markets, I discussed Barron's article Commodities: Who's Behind the Boom? (subscription required), where Gene Epstein provided a compelling argument that the commodities bubble is about to burst. I further wrote that I am a commodities bull and referenced Jim Rogers. As luck would have it, Lawrence C. Strauss wrote a feature article in this week's Barron's Light-Years Ahead of the Crowd: Interview With James B. Rogers, Private Investor (subscription required).
Below is an excerpt from the article where Jim Rogers comments on the recent Barron's commodities article.
Our colleague Gene Epstein argued in a recent Barron's cover story that there is a huge speculative element pushing up commodities prices.
But where is the oil coming from that's going to drive down prices and keep them down? We are going to have corrections, as was the case in 2001 after 9/11. Is there speculation in commodities? Of course. Whenever you have a bull market, it draws money. If the fundamentals are right, investors make money and they want to make more. But people were buying commodities for 20 years in the 1980s and 1990s and nothing happened, because the fundamentals weren't right yet. Now that the fundamentals are right, more money is going into commodities. It will end in a bubble and hysteria. But in 2018, or whenever this bubble finally starts to peak, if I'm lucky you will call me up and I'll say it's time to sell commodities.
So you expect commodities prices to keep running up.
Absolutely. Look, if somebody discovers a gigantic oil field in Chicago or Berlin, then we will maybe have to start reassessing. But remember that all the great oil fields are in decline, including those in Alaska, Mexico and the North Sea. And I'm not just talking about oil. You can't go into your garage, snap your fingers and bring a new zinc mine to market. It takes on average 10 years to bring on any new mine.
Again, as mentioned in my prior post, if you look at the graphs of the commodities indexes on Bloomberg's website, you will note that, while commodities have become more volatile recently, they are still up on the year. In fact, the various indexes have essentially recovered from their prior swoon two weeks ago. Oil prices remain near record highs at about $110 per barrel. Not so very long ago, we wondered when oil would break the one hundred dollar barrier. Now the question is, will oil hit $120 per barrel this summer? Natural gas remains strong, along with agricultural products. You may wish to view my prior article, referenced near the top of this article, for links to gold and silver charts.
Last Friday certainly was an interesting day with the earnings release of GE). I bought some GE near the bottom as a trade. While I think GE is an outstanding company, I am uncertain as to how deep and now long this recession will be. Initially, I did not expect this much damage. While I was aware of the housing bubble, I did not anticipate this much fallout. And according to some, we might be early in the game.
That said, I am not sure how much further down we could go. Are we vulnerable to a much further drop? While I hope not, I am far from certain. Reality is, like most investors, I am waiting and watching events unfold. As the earnings season progresses, we should gain more clarity. However, the companies themselves might not be well positioned to offer much insight, because they too are waiting and watching. Does the housing problem continue to spiral downward and spread throughout more of the economy, or do we begin to stabilize?
I have not made many trades recently. For the most part, I am content to watch my positions. I remain biased to commodities, with particular emphasis on oil, gold, and silver. Outside of commodities, I continue to have a well diversified portfolio, including some stocks that are being hit. We will just wait and see how events unfold.
My photograph of the Rocky Mountains Seen From Calgary is hosted at Flickr. This picture was taken from the western edge of Calgary looking west. If you click on the picture, you will be taken to my Flickr account where you can see more pictures.
Today, I do not have much new to report with regard to the markets. Of course, everyone is talking about The Bear Stearns Companies, Inc. (BSC). Obviously, the troubles running through some investment banks and mortgage related companies are severe. Are we near the bottom or a turning point? I have no idea, and I am not sure that anyone else does either. I watched Bill Fleckenstein on CNBC's Fast Money show. He made an excellent point that not only are we experiencing a meltdown in the mortgage markets, but we are also about to experience an employment correction because many of the jobs created over the past few years were housing related.
Speaking of Fast Money, it is one of my favorite television shows. Unfortunately, it is going downhill. Dylan Ratigan seems to feel the need to cut off his featured guests who are providing insightful and helpful information. Today's show with Bill Fleckenstein served as a good example where Ratigan cut Bill off before Bill could complete his thoughts. And Jeff Macke, a guy who I like and admire, seems intent on cranking up the volume, theatrics, and hysterics with every show. Soon, he will be throwing chairs across the stage and biting off the heads of puppets and other props. The camera and production crew must be on drugs because they keep switching away from the person that is talking and animated to one of the panelists who is caught not paying attention. Guy Adami raises his eyebrows to signal that yes, he is awake and paying attention, but the others often look like deer caught in the headlights. Why the camera and production folks just do not stay focused on the person speaking is beyond me. The production folks also keep bringing in television viewers using webcams. I got a news flash for them. Webcams on television do not work well. The last thing I want after a long day is to hear somebody with a muffled and chaotic voice with a blurry and erratic picture. And Dylan Ratigan seems intent on providing cool sound bites. My question is, why Dylan? You already have a cool show—do not screw it up by trying to be ultra cool and hip. Just provide some great insights to the markets by using your access to some of Wall Street's best talents and your show will continue to be a raging success.
Although the markets are turbulent and difficult to manage, I find these times interesting and exciting. I hold a diversified portfolio with a strong bias toward commodities. I am comfortable with my positions. Occasionally, I will make some small trades, but for the most part, I am taking in all the great action.
On 11 September 2005, I shot the above picture of Chateau Lake Louise in Banff National Park, Alberta. If you click on picture above, you will be taken to my Flickr site. Incidentally, a new interesting photography site worth investigating is ShotCritic. It is a site where photographers can post photographs and receive feedback. And for those who enjoy using Photoshop, I highly recommend Chromasia Photoshop Tutorials.
My current overweight in gold through StreetTRACKS Gold Shares (GLD), Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS), and various oil stocks continue to do well. The natural question is, should I bail out while the getting is good?
Although I have no clue as to how much further the commodities will continue to rise, I am happy to continue owning commodity related securities. Because the U.S. economy continues to limp along, I am not excited about most consumer related stocks. And many industrial stocks are suffering because of a drop off in demand. Thus, commodities remain a safe haven as commodities remain in short supply, even during the slowdown in the U.S.
In summary, at present I am content to be overweighted in commodities.
Disclosure: I am long StreetTracks Gold Shares, Pan American Silver stock, and various oil stocks.
The picture above is near the Bow Falls in Banff National Park, Alberta. The Bow Falls are very near The Fairmont Banff Springs. If you click on picture above, you will be taken to my Flickr site.
On the guidance, I think we’re seeing what a lot of luxury retailers are seeing, is that consumers are behaving very differently over the last 10 weeks than they have been for quite some time. We had a weak January and things have actually picked up slightly going into February but, where we sit today, it’s pretty tough to give guidance for the full year just to be perfectly straight with you guys. What we saw in January was people pulled back. When I talked to people in the channel they’re telling me that stores are absolutely dead. We don’t know how long this continues, whether what we’re seeing is a reaction to people spending what money they were going to spend at Christmas time and then pulling back now, or if it’s something more sustained than that. So, our mindset is to give conservative guidance based on where we’re standing today and then if the situation improves, which we’re hopeful it does, we’ll continue to update. But, from a macro perspective our goal is really just to gain share. That’s all we can do. We can’t change whether or not consumers are going to come into the market to make a purchase but we can do our best to try taking those consumers when they do, and I think we’ve been doing that well for almost nine years now and regardless of what the market does we will grow faster than other people. That’s our intent and I think we’ll do that.
Our guidance is for that as well. The other anomaly we’ve seen over the last few weeks is that very high-end of the market, those price points above $25,000 that were healthy for a very long time for ourselves, as well as a lot of the other luxury players out there are all of a sudden very, very weak. I think we said in the call that high-end sales were 50% growth or above every single quarter of last year. We definitely didn’t see that in the last couple weeks of December and in January. I think the very, very high-end consumer is finally showing some vulnerability out there. The guidance we’re giving today is based on what we’ve seen so far. But if that changes we’ll update people.
The above quote of Mark Vadon, Blue Nile, Inc. (NILE) Executive Chairman, from Seeking Alpha's Transcript of the Blue Nile 4Q 2007 Conference Call explains why the stock was hammered.
Because I am late in providing my thoughts on the conference call, I will provide a shorter than usual article.
Key points from the earnings release and conference call are as follows:
- Gross profit for the quarter grew 25.9% to $23.7 million, from $18.8 million for the fourth quarter of 2006. Gross profit as a percentage of sales increased to 21.1% for the quarter, compared to 20.7% for the fourth quarter of 2006.
- Net income per diluted share for the quarter includes stock-based compensation expense of $0.06, compared to $0.04 for the fourth quarter of 2006.
- International sales totaled $7.2 million in the quarter, an increase of 155% year over year. For the full year, international sales totaled $17.2 million, a 108% increase compared to sales of $8.3 million for fiscal 2006.
- For the full year, net cash provided by operating activities was $41.5 million compared to $40.5 million for fiscal year 2006. Non-GAAP free cash flow for the year totaled $36.6 million, compared to $38.6 million in the prior year. Free cash flow for 2007 includes the change in deferred income taxes related to the full utilization of net operating losses for income tax purposes in 2006, as well as higher capital expenditures for 2007 related primarily to the expansion of the Company's domestic fulfillment center.
- The effective tax rate for the quarter was 33.3%, compared to 35.5% for the fourth quarter of 2006. The lower tax rate is primarily due to deferred tax asset adjustments. The Company's effective tax rate for fiscal year 2007 was 34.3%, compared to 34.6% for fiscal year 2006.
- Capital expenditures in the fourth quarter totaled $1.3 million, compared to $0.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2006. Full year 2007 capital expenditures totaled $4.9 million compared to $1.9 million in 2006. The higher capital expenditures for 2007 relate primarily to the expansion of the Company's domestic fulfillment center.
- During the quarter, the Company repurchased 94,100 shares of its common stock for $6.5 million. For the full year, the Company repurchased 438,755 shares of its common stock for $20.0 million.
- The average sales price in 2007 for an engagement ring sold on the website was just over $6,200, well above the industry average.
- The international efforts are realizing tremendous success, despite a cautious U.S. outlook.
- During the quarter Blue Nile repurchased 94,100 shares of stock for $6.5 million. For the full year 2007 it repurchased 438,755 shares of stock for $20 million.
- Average purchase price for last quarter was $69.08 and for the year, $45.58.
- Net sales are expected to be relatively flat with Q1 2007.
- Net income is expected to be in a range of $0.11 to $0.14 per diluted share. The estimated net income per diluted share includes the estimated impact of stock compensation expense of approximately $0.07 per diluted share, compared to $0.05 per diluted share in the first quarter of 2007.
- The effective tax rate for the quarter is expected to be approximately 35%.
- Goal is to grow net sales by at least 10% for the year and to grow non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA by at least 10%.
- Net income per diluted share goal for 2008 is to achieve a GAAP EPS level that approximates 2007.
- Stock compensation expense for the year is estimated at approximately $0.29 per diluted share, an incremental impact of $0.07 per diluted share compared to 2007.
- The effective tax rate for the year is expected to be approximately 35%.
- Capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $2.5 million.
If you examine Blue Nile's history of buying back shares, you will note that the company has been opportunistic in its purchases. The average cost of its purchased shares last year was about $46 and for the last quarter it was about $70 per share.
I encourage you to listen to the conference call or read the transcript. While I certainly acknowledge the negative effects of U.S. housing slowdown, I do not think the country is headed for a major recession. The economy might worsen in the near to intermediate term, but it will strengthen again. And as Diane Irvine, President and CEO, indicated during the conference call, Blue Nile is well positioned against its traditional brick and mortar competition with their higher costs structures. I agree her assessment that 2008 represents a tremendous opportunity.
Disclosure: I am long Blue Nile stock and call options.
Amanda Grace is featured in the photograph, which is hosted at Flickr. If you click on the picture of Amanda, you will be taken to where you can view a larger version and see even more pictures of her.
The stock markets are certainly uncertain. Even with the Fed statement of a 50 basis points cut in the federal funds rate to 3 percent, the markets still closed the day lower, albeit just slightly.
Given all pessimism, I want to start buying again, especially commodity related stocks. However, given that the market remains turbulent, I am not sure that now is the proper time to become fully invested.
So what exactly am I waiting for before I do begin buying more aggressively again? To be honest, I am not sure. I know if I saw a sharp correction, I would jump in with both feet. And, I suspect many traders and investors would do the same. I suppose if the markets begin to show more stability, that too might encourage me to start buying. The reality is, I am in a wait and see mode.
Switching topics, the above photographs show Chateau Lake Louise in Banff National Park (see Google Maps). The top photograph shows the result after post processing and the bottom photograph is straight out of the camera with no post processing. I bracketed my exposures to +1, 0, -1 ƒ stops of the camera exposure. I found the 0, and +1 ƒ stops photos too bright and went with the -1 ƒ stop setting. If you visit Lake Louise, you will notice that the lake has a turquoise blue color from the glacial silt in the lake. The original photograph does not show the color of the lake very well. Using some techniques that I learned from Chromasia Photoshop Tutorials, I changed the color of the lake and increased the contrast. I made some other subtle changes as well; however, those are the larger adjustments. I thought some of you might find interesting looking at both the before and after pictures.
The top photograph is linked to my Flickr site, where the photographs are hosted.
I have been extraordinarily busy this past week, so I did not watch the markets as closely as I normally do. I did, however, purchase more oil stocks and stocks in a couple other sectors. Although I did not load up the proverbial boat with oil stocks, I might further increase my exposure soon. Those who follow my blog know that I am an oil bull, believing that oil prices will continue to rise because of the inability to match supply with demand at current prices. However, there might be some further downward pressure on oil stocks as northern hemisphere enters the spring season and the demand for oil is temporarily lessened. Of course, the current market turbulence might further add to the downward pressure.
That said, I believe that the stocks of oil companies are unlikely to fall much further. Put differently, there is much more upside than downside, especially as you lengthen your time horizon beyond one year. As time progresses, the world demand for crude oil will continue to increase. As the volume of oil consumed increases, the amount of crude that must be found just to replenish the natural decline of existing oil fields also increases. And then, more oil must be found to satisfy the increased global demand. Thus, those companies that have large reserves should do well.
The photograph of Model Linda T is hosted at Flickr. In this photograph, Linda posed in front of a train in the Heritage Park train roundabout. (See Google map:View Larger Map.) If you click on the picture of Linda, you will be taken to my Flickr account where you see even more pictures of her.
Doug Kass, general partner of Seabreeze Partners Management, Inc. and commentator for The Edge Column on RealMoney Silver (subscription required—part of TheStreet.com family) covered his short position in Zale Corporation (ZLC). I followed suit.
In an earlier article, I provided my rationale as to why I was considering covering my short position in Zale early in the New Year. Now that the stock has fallen even more and because Doug Kass mentioned that he is getting out of the short position, I am ringing the register and closing my short position as well. I shorted Zale in March of 2007 and I covered today. You can see the Yahoo chart on Zale's stock price movement since March 2007.
Calgary model Judith Aldama is featured in the photograph above, which is hosted at Flickr. If you click on the picture of Judith, you will be taken to where you can view a larger version and see even more pictures of her.
Disclosure: No position in Zale.
