I expect September West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices to remain between $60 and $70 per barrel, which was the expected range for July and August as well. I had expected the prices in August to stay in the upper half of that range; instead, prices tended toward the bottom half of the range. For September, I expect oil prices to remain in the bottom half of the range.
The WTI oil price sentiment is extraordinarily bearish. Everywhere I look, I just see more bearish indications. So let me show you what I have been seeing recently.
Figure 1: Money Managers’ Total Long and Short Positions in WTI
On August 28, John Kemp of JKempEnergy.com published “Plentiful U.S. crude inventories signal well-supplied market” that contained the graphic “Money Managers’ total long and short positions in WTI.” As you can see from figure 1, the net position has not been lower than it is now in the last five years.
Eric Nuttall posted on X some bearish graphics regarding oil inventories.
HFI Research also published some bearish graphs on X.
HFI also published a screenshot of a Goldman Sachs report that suggests Brent oil prices will decline to the low $50s by late 2026. Brent oil prices are typically $2 to $4 higher than WTI oil prices.
And Paul Sankey of Sankey Research published two YouTube videos.
Although I do not always share his viewpoint, I quite enjoy Sankey’s videos because he delivers great content in a fun and informative manner.
Now, you would think with that bearish oil price backdrop, oil stocks would be languishing. And you would be wrong. Some oil stocks are near their 52-week highs—for example, Imperial Oil (IMO) hit its 52-week high on Friday.
During the recent war in Iran when oil prices were in the low $70s and there was fear of much higher prices, these same oil stocks were trading for less than they are today.
Oil stocks are not overly expensive compared to other stocks. Eric Nuttall provided a helpful graphic on X:
Oil stocks, however, typically trade at a significantly lower multiple than other stocks.
I wish I could provide an explanation as to why oil stocks are doing so well. From watching the markets, once the Fed Chair signaled potential lower rates at the Jackson Hole conference, all stocks, including oil stocks, rallied higher. Perhaps with lower rates and expectations of a stronger global economy, oil stocks ran higher. Even so, there are several oil stocks doing exceptionally well with oil prices at around $65.
In summary, even with the oil bearishness, my expectation is for September WTI prices remaining between $60 and $70 per barrel.
Disclosure: Short strangle (short calls and short puts) on WTI crude oil.