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Oil Update—July 2026

Last month, I expected the US-Iran conflict to be winding down. As we know, there had been a ceasefire, and then recently both sides participated in kinetic activity.

There are mixed signals as to how much progress is being made toward a ceasefire. Until the smoke clears, it is impossible to give a meaningful price range with any confidence. I can make a case for much higher or lower oil prices. If I were to give a range, it would be so absurdly wide that it would be of no value.

In short, I have no idea where the US-Iran conflict is headed or what to expect for oil prices over the next month.

A picture of a dinosaur with his hands up in an I don't know position.

Dinosaur

And as I stated last month, I hope there is more stability in the Gulf so that people in the Gulf can get on with their lives and people around the world can have more predictable and affordable energy.

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