Specious Argument

The US-Iran conflict is lasting longer than most originally expected.

Because the uncertainty remains too great, I will refrain from offering estimates for the range of WTI prices.

As I wrote last month, “I have no idea where the US-Iran conflict is headed or what to expect for oil prices over the next month.”

I have a hunch that this conflict may last into the New Year.

Dinosaur

And as I have repeatedly stated, “I hope there is more stability in the Gulf so that people in the Gulf can get on with their lives and people around the world can have more predictable and affordable energy.”

Last month, I expected the US-Iran conflict to be winding down. As we know, there had been a ceasefire, and then recently both sides participated in kinetic activity.

There are mixed signals as to how much progress is being made toward a ceasefire. Until the smoke clears, it is impossible to give a meaningful price range with any confidence. I can make a case for much higher or lower oil prices. If I were to give a range, it would be so absurdly wide that it would be of no value.

In short, I have no idea where the US-Iran conflict is headed or what to expect for oil prices over the next month.

Dinosaur

And as I stated last month, I hope there is more stability in the Gulf so that people in the Gulf can get on with their lives and people around the world can have more predictable and affordable energy.

The US Iran conflict appears to be winding down. That said, there are still several unknowns in regard to how the Strait of Hormuz will operate in the future. And it is also unclear how quickly the situation will return to normal, how much demand destruction has taken place, when the strategic petroleum reserves will cease being used to supply additional crude, and so forth. In short, there are too many unknowns to provide any meaningful commentary.

There are very smart, knowledgeable people on both sides of the bearish bullish debate. Until there is more clarity, I am just going to sit on the sidelines. I hope that within a month or so, the situation becomes much clearer.

I further hope there is more stability in the Gulf so that people in the Gulf can get on with their lives and people around the world can have more predictable and affordable energy.

This post is a carbon copy of last month’s post. Also, I realized at the end of June that I had not posted at the end of May. So I am backdating this post to the end of May. At that time, I had no opinions for the month of June.

Because of the ongoing conflict in Iran, I will not offer an oil price forecast for this month. There is so much misinformation and disinformation circulating—from all sides and even well-respected sources—that it is impossible to form a clear view of developments.

Like many others, I have been following events as best I can. West Texas Intermediate prices have stayed elevated amid the disruptions, reflecting uncertainty around supply routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. I continue to sit on my hands with no new positions until the situation clarifies. No one knows how long this will last—it could be days, weeks, or longer.

I hope that the conflict winds down soon with minimal harm and that the Iranian people are able to lead better lives.