My expectation for November’s West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices is that WTI should range between $65 and $75 per barrel.
WTI has been hovering around these prices recently. With the upcoming election only a few days away and the upcoming OPEC meeting in early December, oil prices are likely to remain in this narrow range until more is known.
The US election should not alter the price of oil in the short term. Traders prefer to have more certainty, however, before learning strongly in one direction or other.
The more important event is the OPEC meeting. The big question is what OPEC will do. Does it return barrels to the market, or does it hold off?
According to Rystad Energy, OPEC is likely to hold off, according to a Bloomberg article “OPEC+ Won’t Bring Back Oil Production This Year, Rystad Says.”
OPEC and its allies aren’t likely to bring oil output back this year because producers are “making huge money” from refined products, according to Rystad Energy.
“Our view is that they will continue to cut the barrels and keep the present market short,” Mukesh Sahdev, Rystad’s head of oil trading and downstream analysis, said at a conference in Houston. The producer group led by Saudi Arabia and Russia would like to keep global oil prices in the $75-$80 a barrel range, he added.
Global oil prices refer to Brent oil prices, which are typically $3-$4 higher than WTI prices.
From my reading of other sources, this price range seems reasonable.
After the December OPEC meeting, analysts and traders will review and revise their outlooks accordingly.