My expectation for December’s West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices remains unchanged from last month where the range was between $65 and $75 per barrel.
Although the US election is now behind us, I believe that, in the near term, the election results will not significantly affect US oil production and, therefore, oil prices.
OPEC+ has delayed its meeting from December 1 to December 5. Most analysts believe that oil production cutbacks will be extended. By the end of the upcoming week, we will know OPEC+ plans for the next quarter or two.
There seems to be a cautious outlook for December and 2025. One of the more bullish investors is Eric Nuttall. Nuttall provides his outlook for WTI to generally range between $70 and $80 per barrel in the Financial Post article “Hoping Trump revives Keystone XL? Don’t hold your breath, Nuttall says.” The article has a five-minute video that is worth watching.
Nuttall is slightly more sanguine than I am because my expectation is more of the same—that is, WTI oil prices should range between $65 and $75 per barrel.
For those interested in a more comprehensive interview with Nuttall, I encourage you to view his half-hour interview with Investing News on YouTube “Eric Nuttall: Oil Facing Volatile 2025 — Where I’m Investing, Plus Prices, Supply and Demand.”
I do not expect any significant developments in the next month or two. Beyond that, I am concerned about the global geopolitical environment and current stock market valuation.
Charlie Bilello posted a chart on X showing that the US stock market appear rich. When the markets become stressed, correlations tend to converge to one. That implies that oil markets may become turbulent as well.
Like all years, 2025 should be interesting and challenging for oil traders and oil company equity investors.
I wish everyone a Wonderful Holiday Season and a Happy, Safe, and Healthy New Year.