Once again, my expectation for March West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices are the same as they were for January and February—that is, $67.50 to $77.50 per barrel. Prices stayed within my expected range during February.
I do not have many comments to make this month as not much has changed. While some may be bullish, I am more cautious because of consumer sentiment. In fact, on February 25, the Conference Board issued a press release “US Consumer Confidence Dropped Sharply in February” that stated:
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index ® declined by 7.0 points in February to 98.3 (1985=100). The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell 3.4 points to 136.5. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions— dropped 9.3 points to 72.9. For the first time since June 2024, the Expectations Index was below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. The cutoff date for preliminary results was February 19, 2025.
With tariff uncertainty and government cutbacks, Americans are feeling cautious. Furthermore, Europe is undergoing geopolitical adjustments. Because of poor consumer sentiment, I do not expect WTI prices to exceed my expected range for the next month.
Although Eric Nuttall of Ninepoint Partners is not making a call for March, he does provide his bullish take in this half-hour YouTube “The Macro Setup for Oil & Gas Has Never Been More Bullish | Ninepoint Energy Market Update.”
He makes a strong case for bullish oil prices and remaining invested in oil and gas stocks.
A February 27 Reuters article “Sanctions, tariffs make OPEC+ hesitant on April oil hike, sources say” suggests that no decision whether to increase production has been reached.
LONDON/MOSCOW, Feb 27 (Reuters) – OPEC+ is debating whether to raise oil output in April as planned or freeze it as its members struggle to read the global supply picture because of fresh U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, Iran and Russia, eight OPEC+ sources said.
OPEC+ usually confirms its supply policy one month in advance to have time to allocate crude to buyers. Hence, the group has until March 5-7 to finalise its April production but no consensus has emerged so far, some of the sources said.
Given the soft outlook and geopolitical uncertainty, I would be surprised if OPEC+ decided to raise production.
I expect that oil prices should be stable for the month of March.