Specious Argument

My expectation for the West Texas Intermediate oil price for August is the same as it was for July, namely WTI will range between $65 and $75 per barrel. While it might deviate from that range for a few days, I expect that WTI prices will fall within that range for most of the month.

The US Energy Information Administration predicts lower prices in the months ahead. In its latest “Short-Term Energy Outlook” (PDF), it states the following:

Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $74 per barrel (b) in June, a decrease of almost $3/b from the May average. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average $73/b in the second half of 2018 and will average $69/b in 2019. EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average $6/b lower than Brent prices in the second half of 2018 and $7/b lower in 2019. NYMEX WTI futures and options contract values for October 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending July 5, 2018, suggest a range of $56/b to $87/b encompasses the market expectation for October WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.

Yet others believe that prices are on the cusp of a bull market. On July 28, the Wall Street Journal in an article titled “As Oil Industry Recovers From a Glut, a Supply Crunch Might Be Looming” (subscription required) stated the following:

“The years of underinvestment are setting the scene for a supply crunch,” said Virendra Chauhan, an oil industry analyst at consultancy Energy Aspects. He believes a production deficit could come as soon as the end of next year, potentially pushing oil above $100 a barrel.

. . .

Veteran oil investor Pierre Andurand is betting on a multiyear bull run in oil. Mr. Andurand said Brent could hit highs of $100 a barrel this year and top $150 by the early 2020s. Others forecast more modest price gains but still believe a supply deficit will raise prices.

Oil price uncertainty continues to rage on. I am waiting to see how trade tensions play out over the fall, how Venezuela manages in the months ahead, and how oil markets react to Iran sanctions in November. I expect substantial oil price uncertainty will remain for the next several months.

While uncertainty surrounding oil prices remains, my expectation for July is that West Texas Intermediate will generally range between $65 and $75 per barrel. WTI prices might be up to five dollars per barrel outside of that range for a few days, but I expect that it should remain within that range for most of the month.

Reduced inventories and limited spare capacity in OPEC countries are helping to push prices higher. Part of the capacity problem is that countries such as Libya and Venezuela are having severe production problems while Iran is being affected by sanctions.

On June 24, Nick Butler wrote in the Financial Times article “Issues beyond Opec will drive oil prices in coming years” (subscription required) the following:

The first is the situation in Venezuela, which has gone from bad to worse over the past two months. In the short term, the situation remains the greatest uncertainty hanging over the oil market. The country’s production of crude oil fell to 1.36m barrels a day in May, 600,000 b/d down from its level a year ago. The International Energy Agency has raised the possibility that output could fall to 800,000 b/d next year. Given the dramatic collapse in Venezuelan living standards, it is hard to imagine that the government can remain in power. But so far predictions of political change have not been fulfilled.

On June 26, in an online article “U.S. Toughens Stance on Future Iran Oil Exports” (subscription required), Wall Street Journal reported the following:

WASHINGTON—The U.S. threatened to slap sanctions on countries that don’t cut oil imports from Iran to “zero” by Nov. 4, part of the Trump administration’s push to further isolate Tehran both politically and economically, a senior U.S. State Department official said.

Buyers of Iranian crude had expected the U.S. would allow them time to reduce their oil imports over a much longer period, by issuing sanctions waivers for nations that made significant efforts to cut their purchases. That expectation was partly based on previous comments from top Trump officials, as well as the Obama administration’s earlier effort to wean the world off Iranian oil over several years.

Demands from President Trump for Saudi Arabia to increase production might help to offset inventories and production. Just this morning, in fact, Trump tweeted:

Just spoke to King Salman of Saudi Arabia and explained to him that, because of the turmoil & disfunction in Iran and Venezuela, I am asking that Saudi Arabia increase oil production, maybe up to 2,000,000 barrels, to make up the difference…Prices to high! He has agreed!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 30, 2018

How much Saudi Arabia actually increases production is anyone’s guess.

And, on June 27, John Kemp, an energy analyst with Reuters, tweeted:

WHITE HOUSE can push Iran’s crude exports to zero, or it can have moderate oil prices, but cannot have both. Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait likely do not have enough spare capacity to offset loss of all Iran barrels as well as Venezuela and other losses. White House must choose …

— John Kemp (@JKempEnergy) June 27, 2018

There are competing forces. There are political forces that want to push prices down, and there are physical forces in the form of constraints that are limiting OPEC’s ability to react. On June 22, famous oil trader Pierre Andurand wrote the following in response to a prior Trump tweet for OPEC to reduce prices:

But they can’t! It is not like they have a lot of spare capacity. They cannot control the upside at the moment. Same as in early 2008

— Pierre Andurand 🇺🇦🇫🇷🇪🇺🕊️ (@AndurandPierre) June 22, 2018

In summary, political pressure is being applied in an attempt to keep oil prices moderated. Yet, as mentioned by Kemp and Andurand, there are physical forces in the form of constraints with regard to much lower inventories as a result of drawdowns and reduced surplus capacity. Because it is impossible to know how these competing forces will play out over the next several weeks, it is equally impossible to have a more definitive view on oil prices. With WTI prices near $74 per barrel on Friday and Trump tweeting to bring prices down, I am inclined to think that $74 is near the upper end. How far down can it go? I expect that OPEC wants prices as high as possible to maximize its own revenues as well as encourage new sources of production, but not so high that oil prices spike on a temporary shortage. With those thoughts in mind, I expect that $65 might be the lower end of the range. This is all guesswork, however.

As an aside, for those of you who like to follow oil developments closely, I urge you to sign up for John Kemp’s free energy news and research. Here is a tweet from Kemp:

SIGN UP for a free daily digest of best in energy news +my research notes by using this link: https://t.co/RjI6BA2HLA pic.twitter.com/ZdoRAwd2q5

— John Kemp (@JKempEnergy) June 29, 2018

Unlike my typical practice of giving my monthly oil price range forecast for West Texas Intermediate, for the coming month, I am not providing a range because the uncertainty is too great.

There are at least three major factors underlying the uncertainty. First, the magnitude of the decrease in Iranian oil exports due to new sanctions is unknown. I have read articles that suggest as little as two hundred thousand barrels per day and as much as one million five hundred thousand barrels per day. Second, Venezuela’s future oil production volumes remain uncertain. On May 23, the online Wall Street Journal article “Keep Your Eye on Venezuela’s Oil—Energy Journal” (subscription might be required) stated as follows:

Due to political and social unrest, Venezuela’s oil output slid around 23% over the course of last year, according to International Energy Agency figures.

And the collapse is picking up steam. Venezuelan crude output has dropped by an additional 200,000 barrels a day this year to stand at 1.42 million barrels a day, a 15-year low and a striking reversal of fortune for a country with the world’s largest oil reserves.

And third, OPEC and Russia have indicated that they plan to agree to increase production at their June 22 meeting. The volume and duration of their increase is unknown.

Because there are too many significant unknowns to make a reasonable estimate, I am taking a wait-and-see approach.

After celebrating his eighteenth birthday in March, Cazador passed away on April 11, 2018.

In the photograph, taken a day before he passed away, you can see the intravenous line that went into his back for his subcutaneous fluids. He had kidney disease, high blood pressure, arthritis, and possibly pancreatitis and cancer. And because he had been receiving fluids for so long, we were concerned about his heart toward the latter part of his life.

About four years ago, Cazador’s appetite was weak and he was vomiting frequently. Along with his usual physical examination and blood work, Cazador had undergone an ultrasound test. Although the results were not conclusive or specific, his veterinarian at that time, now retired, believed that steroids, subcutaneous fluids, and other medications might alleviate his symptoms without necessarily treating the root cause of his gastrointestinal problems. She also mentioned that the root cause might be cancer, but without exploratory surgery, we would never know.

Cazador’s picture taken during his morning fluids treatment. This picture was taken the morning before he passed away.

Long-term use of steroids might cause other problems, and long-term subcutaneous fluids stresses a cat’s heart. Wanting to avoid surgery, I chose to proceed with fluids, steroids, and other medications. The surgery option was not appealing because, at fourteen years of age, he was already considered an older cat and because surgery might reveal a problem that had no solution. I wanted the remainder of his life to be as comfortable as possible.

When the veterinarian gave Cazador his first fluids at the clinic, he put up a mighty struggle because he was unfamiliar with the setting and he was separated from me. His struggle and my squeamishness about medical procedures led the veterinarian to say that Cazador might not be a good candidate for subcutaneous fluids. Reading between the lines, I also took that to mean that she thought I might not be able to muster up the courage to give him fluids on a regular basis, especially considering how difficult he was in the clinic. Initially, my mother came over every other day to give him his fluids while I kept Cazador calm. And although I am very squeamish when it comes to anything medical, I eventually took over and quickly learned and modified her method. Much to my surprise, Cazador liked receiving fluids from me. When he saw me entering his bedroom and hanging the bag of fluids on the intravenous pole, he, too, entered his bedroom and climbed up onto his pillow “nest” on his bed using the steps that I provided. He then stretched out and waited for me to get everything arranged. When I pinched his skin in preparation for the needle, he stretched out even further and often began to purr. It was a well-choreographed dance. On occasions when my mother was present during his fluids treatment, she always marveled at Cazador’s tranquility.

As mentioned, his subcutaneous fluids began as an every-other-day procedure. Then it progressed to a daily routine, and during about the last three months, I gave him fluids twice a day.

In recent months Cazador had lost a lot of weight. When examining Cazador at his last visit, his veterinarian felt a blockage in his upper chest at the transverse colon area that she thought might be preventing him from eating. Without invasive surgery and a hospital stay, there was simply nothing more that could be done. Because of his age, frailty, and other ongoing conditions and because he and I were so attached, I, with the support of his veterinarian, made the humane decision to allow him to slip away gracefully and peacefully to the great beyond.

I am slowly adjusting to not having Cazador around. During the latter part of his life, he needed a lot of care. Every four to six hours he required some form of medical treatment, such as needles for pain medication, various pills, and fluid injections. We had developed an elaborate routine where we each knew what to expect and when. Now, of course, our routine has ended abruptly.

Throughout his life, he was very happy and easy-going. He always enjoyed playing games. One of his favorite tricks, for example, was to wake me at three o’clock in the morning for a brushing. He had me well trained. And right up to the end of his life, his mind and his sense of humor were as sharp as ever. I miss him terribly.

Switching topics, if any of you need to give your cat subcutaneous fluid at some point, I have a couple of recommendations. First, place the fluid bag in a sink filled with warm to hot water before giving your cat its fluids. That will allow the fluid to be warm when it enters your cat. Your cat will appreciate your thoughtfulness. And second, provide your cat with a warm bed to receive the fluids.

I recommend this heated blanket (Amazon affiliate link). It comes in different sizes. I had three of them for Cazador. I have one on my bed, one where he got his fluids, and another in my office. I put blankets or cat beds over top of the heating pads and allowed him to come and go as he pleased. He absolutely loved his heated spots. For other options, you can go this page on Amazon (affiliate link).