by Stecyk
on July 30, 2016
Last month I was concerned about Brexit and its implications for the oil market. At present, Brexit doesn’t seem to be playing an important role in the markets.
Oil recently has softened as there is a glut of refined products. With too much inventory, refineries are likely to cut back on their crude purchases. Making matters worse, according to Reuters, “OPEC oil output set to reach record high in July: survey.” Furthermore, as we enter into August, refinery utilization rates typically begin to slow as we approach the shoulder season between summer driving and winter heating. The U.S. Energy Information Administration provides a graph showing last year’s and this year’s “Crude oil refinery inputs.” Looking at the graph, we see that crude oil inputs begin to slow sometime in early August and reach their low points in late October or early November.
Now that oil prices have softened to the low $40s, we are left wondering will prices continue to fall or stabilize before heading higher again?
{ }
by Stecyk
on June 30, 2016
I am still trying to wrap my head around Brexit and what implications it might have for oil. As a consequence, I have nothing meaningful to add for June. Let’s see what the next few weeks bring.
{ }
by Stecyk
on May 31, 2016
I am surprised by the strength of oil prices. As I type this post, West Texas Intermediate is flirting with $50, skirting a few pennies above or below.
Of course, the recent turmoil Africa, especially Nigeria, and the wildfires in northern Alberta have hampered oil supply. With forest fire no longer a serious threat to Fort McMurray or oilsands production facilities, companies are in the process of restarting their production, so this shortfall shouldn’t last much longer.
The next shoe to drop might be Venezuela. As we know, the country is experiencing severe difficulties, and that’s putting it mildly. Many are wondering if the country will completely collapse, and, if so, what that development might mean to its production.
OPEC has its next meeting this week on June 2. Given the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia, I don’t expect any changes in OPEC’s position.
I am waiting and watching to see how some developments play themselves out. Does Nigeria continue to get worse? How long until Alberta production resumes normal levels? Will Venezuela be the next crisis? Does OPEC do anything unexpected? And how does the oil industry react to these higher price levels? Wrapping up, there’s just more continued uncertainty.
{ }
by Stecyk
on April 30, 2016
This is yet another installment on the latest oil price movements.
The Doha pow-wow turned into a non-event as Saudi Arabia at the last moment pulled the plug on any potential deal, stating that in order for there to be a deal, Iran must be included.
The Doha failure surprised me because I thought there was no downside and only upside. All represented countries were at or near maximum capacity, so landing on a deal would not have made any significant difference to their production levels. Yet, if a deal had been struck, that action might have added more confidence to an oil rebound.
Even more surprising to me was the oil price reaction after the Doha failure. Oil has been remarkably strong during the past two weeks. John Kemp at Reuters suggests in his article “Oil rally is not just about hedge funds” that oil prices are becoming dangerously overheated. We will discover soon whether recent prices are warranted.
At this point, I am skeptical of oil rising much further or falling back close to prior lows in the near term.
{ }
by Stecyk
on March 30, 2016
As a follow-up to my February post regarding oil prices, I am still not optimistic about a quick recovery.
As we have seen, there was no March meeting for OPEC and some non-OPEC countries to agree to a production freeze. Now, the latest plan is for those countries to meet in the Qatari capital of Doha on April 17. Assuming that the meeting does proceed and that they do agree to a production freeze, I am unsure of the benefits. That agreement would just freezes oil production at or near maximum levels. In other words, the world would remain awash in surplus oil.
Compounding the problem, according Janet Yellen’s speech yesterday (New York Times—a subscription might be required), global economic growth remains sluggish.
While I remain skeptical of a quick recovery, I am hopeful that oil prices won’t fall much further.
{ }
Recent Comments