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Oil Update–July 2017

I am updating my WTI oil price expectations for the next several weeks to range between $43–$53 per barrel, two dollars per barrel lower than before. The reasons for changing are increased production from Libya and Nigeria, Ecuador straying outside its production cap, and general cynicism toward OPEC being able to reduce global inventories as quickly as expected.

Although I have reduced my expectations, should OPEC announce significant changes to its policy after meeting this weekend in Saint Petersburg, Russia, then all bets are off.

If the current situation persists, however, then I am comfortable with my updated values.

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